733
FXUS61 KCLE 261930
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
230 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WARMER FOR FRIDAY. PROJECTED
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD,
ALBEIT SLIGHTLY. STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO BE FOCUSED JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION THIS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) DRY WEATHER AND OVERALL MODERATION IN AIR TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
2.) SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MAINLY ONE INCH OR LESS.
3.) AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
1.) NET LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION
TODAY AND THEN PERSISTS ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO CREST E'WARD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY
AND THEN BECOMES LOCATED TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20'S ARE STILL EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD THEN REACH THE MID 40'S TO
LOWER 50'S IN NW PA AND MAINLY THE 50'S IN NORTHERN OH AS
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME WARMING ARE COMPLEMENTED BY
SOMEWHAT BREEZY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA. FOR CONTEXT, NORMAL HIGHS ARE NEAR 40F
AND NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 25F THIS TIME OF YEAR IN OUR CWA. DRY
WEATHER PERSISTS AS STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE
RIDGE.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
EXIT E'WARD AS CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER OUR REGION. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE COLD FRONT STARVED OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXHIBITING SUBTLE SLOPE SHOULD SWEEP
SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT,
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY. THUS, DRY WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE 30'S
FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY'S LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
40'S TO LOWER 50'S AMIDST PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND VERY WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT.
2.) DURING SATURDAY NIGHT, CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION. THE COLD AIR
MASS DEEPENS AS THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTOGENETICAL DEFORMATION ZONE. MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD
TRIGGER A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS OUR REGION. IN
ADDITION, A SUFFICIENTLY COLD/MOIST LOW/MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND NNW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE
~1C ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE, WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE, AND
THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS SHOULD PERMIT A PERIOD OF LAKE-
ENHANCED SNOW (LENS) TO OCCUR GENERALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE,
ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 1" OR LESS IN
OUR CWA, BUT LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-3" ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DUE TO THE LENS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20'S AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
3.) STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD IMPACT OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY AS W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC
BRIEFLY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
VICINITY. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 20'S IN NW PA
AND MAINLY THE MID 20'S TO MID 30'S IN NORTHERN OH AMIDST
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, PRIMARILY CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AS WE REMAIN
WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR CWA, AND THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHOULD MOVE FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
GULF OF MAINE. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW PERIODS OF PRIMARILY LIGHT
SNOW TO IMPACT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AXIS OF GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS, A COATING TO 2" OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN OUR CWA FROM THIS ROUND OF SNOW.
STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES. STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DRY
WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN IN THE COLD
SECTOR.
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS LESS
CERTAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN SIZABLE SPREAD IN NWP
MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO SW'ERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT NORTHERN
OH AND NW PA. A WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD THROUGH
OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN. NEAR-NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN
AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT POTENTIALLY WAVERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AS MULTIPLE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONES
DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ALONG THE FRONT, YET
PRIMARILY WAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFFECTS OUR REGION.
PERIODS OF PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE, IN PART TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXES. HOWEVER, WET SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END VFR CEILINGS
(~3.5KFT) MAY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG WILL FAVOR A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, 5 TO 7 KNOTS, ENHANCED BY A WEAK LAKE
BREEZE. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 5 KNOTS OR
LESS IS EXPECTED. WINDS AREAWIDE WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY IN SNOW. NON- VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30.
MARINE
EXPECT RELATIVELY CALM MARINE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND SUSTAINED WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT AS A
WEAK LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY.
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW ICE ON THE LAKE TO SHIFT AROUND OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ICE DECAY IS LIKELY AS TEMPERATURES RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND AGAIN FROM TUESDAY
ONWARDS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...15
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