750
FXUS61 KCLE 271413
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
913 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MID-AM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID PER LATEST
TRENDS IN OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, INCREASED FORECAST
HIGHS TO NEAR 50F ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE IN ERIE
COUNTY, PA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA TO
COMPLEMENT DAYTIME WARMING IN THAT AREA.
EARLY AM UPDATE: THE ODDS FOR AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OR MORE ARE
INCREASING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE DECREASING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW.
2) LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LIMITED ROAD IMPACTS.
3) LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A TREND TOWARDS RAINY AND WARMER WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD DEPARTS TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ADVECT WARM AIR TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
TODAY WHEN HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 50S, AND POTENTIALLY
TOUCHING 60 IN A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST OHIO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO
A LAKE BREEZE ON LAKE ERIE, KEEPING FOLKS NEAR LAKE ERIE A BIT
COLDER.
2) BRIEF, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
CURRENT POP FORECAST IS ONLY FOR 50-60% CHANCE OF SNOW. OF THE
MODELS THAT HAVE SNOW, THE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED
MARGINALLY, WITH ODDS OF >1" AROUND 30-50% AND >2" AROUND
10-30%. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING, WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD LEAD TO WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES TO
START, AND LIMIT ROAD IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS LESS THAN
INCH OF SNOW.
3) A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
PRODUCING A STRIP OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS. THE QPE SIGNAL HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST FEW
CYCLES, SO THE PROBABILITY OF >2" OF SNOW HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE MOST LIKELY
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE), WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN CENTRAL OHIO (CLOSER TO
COLUMBUS AREA).
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, LEADING TO BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE ADVECTION WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE REGION.
SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK (HIGHS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BRIEF
WINDOW OF BKN045 CEILINGS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER
PUSHES EAST. EXPECT PRIMARILY SKC TO SCT250 BEHIND THIS AREA OF
LOWER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 10-15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
NON- VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30.
MARINE
THE MAJORITY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE REMAIN ICE-
COVERED AT THIS TIME. OFFSHORE FLOW 10-15 KNOTS TODAY WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF
ICE ON THE LAKE. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AND DECREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WINDS TURN EASTERLY
ON MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA/SAUNDERS
AVIATION...13
MARINE...13
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