613
FXUS61 KCLE 271739
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1239 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MID-AM UPDATE: MOST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS VALID PER LATEST
TRENDS IN OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, INCREASED FORECAST
HIGHS TO NEAR 50F ALONG AND NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE IN ERIE
COUNTY, PA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA TO
COMPLEMENT DAYTIME WARMING IN THAT AREA.
EARLY AM UPDATE: THE ODDS FOR AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW OR MORE ARE
INCREASING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE DECREASING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW.
2) LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LIMITED ROAD IMPACTS.
3) LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A TREND TOWARDS RAINY AND WARMER WEATHER BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
1) HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD DEPARTS TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ADVECT WARM AIR TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
TODAY WHEN HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 50S, AND POTENTIALLY
TOUCHING 60 IN A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHWEST OHIO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO
A LAKE BREEZE ON LAKE ERIE, KEEPING FOLKS NEAR LAKE ERIE A BIT
COLDER.
2) BRIEF, LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING AND
CURRENT POP FORECAST IS ONLY FOR 50-60% CHANCE OF SNOW. OF THE
MODELS THAT HAVE SNOW, THE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED
MARGINALLY, WITH ODDS OF >1" AROUND 30-50% AND >2" AROUND
10-30%. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING, WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW COULD LEAD TO WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES TO
START, AND LIMIT ROAD IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS LESS THAN
INCH OF SNOW.
3) A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE REGION AS A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA,
PRODUCING A STRIP OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS. THE QPE SIGNAL HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST FEW
CYCLES, SO THE PROBABILITY OF >2" OF SNOW HAS LOWERED TO AROUND
20-30% SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE MOST LIKELY
LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA (CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE), WITH 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTH IN CENTRAL OHIO (CLOSER TO
COLUMBUS AREA).
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, LEADING TO BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE ADVECTION WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE REGION.
SHOULD GENERALLY SEE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK (HIGHS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY) WITH SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING CLEAR TODAY WITH HIGH
CLOUDS BUILDING EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IMPACTING EASTERN TERMINALS AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST, BUT OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AT
TERMINALS. OPTED TO HANDLE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN A TEMPO
GIVEN THE SPORADIC NATURE EXPECTED.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN IDEAL DIRECTION FOR
DOWNSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN NWPA, SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL GUSTS AT
KERI. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER, A STRONG LLJ OF 40-50
KNOTS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE GUSTS AT
THE SURFACE, OPTED TO INCLUDE A PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXPECT KYNG DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET WITHIN THE PERIOD
OF 3-10Z SATURDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST SATURDAY
MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME WEST- NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
US-30. PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
MARINE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY, THERE WAS AN EXCELLENT VIEW FROM
SATELLITE OF THE REMAINING ICE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL BASIN IS NOW OPEN WITH THE WESTERN BASIN ICE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING. IN THE EASTERN BASIN, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ICE
STILL EXISTS, HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT
ICE CRACKS ARE OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE. AS AN
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE ICE AND FRACTURE IT EVEN
MORE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
BEFORE BACKING TO WESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NUDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO
BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME, BUT WAVES WITHIN OPEN
WATERS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET AT TIMES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA/SAUNDERS
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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