938
FXUS61 KCLE 280459
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1159 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT, VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) MAINLY DRY AND RELATIVELY-MILD WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
2.) SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MAINLY ONE INCH OR LESS.
3.) AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
1.) A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES TO
EXIT E'WARD THROUGH SATURDAY AS CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION. IN ADDITION, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT STARVED OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXHIBITING A SUBTLE
SLOPE SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION SATURDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD NOSE INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING
DURING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ITSELF. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A NOCTURNAL SSW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF ~40 TO 60 KNOTS
AT/NEAR 925 MB SHOULD DEVELOP, UNDERGO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT,
AND TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF OUR I-75
CORRIDOR COUNTIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE MID
30'S TO NEAR 40F OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY, LATE AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 50'S AMIDST PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. A NOTABLE
S'ERLY GRADIENT IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES EXISTS DUE TO
EXPECTED LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING, AMIDST A WEAK SYNOPTIC MSLP
GRADIENT, AND THE FACT THAT ICE-FREE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ~34F.
2.) DURING SATURDAY NIGHT, CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION. THE COLD AIR
MASS DEEPENS AS THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION, WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTOGENETICAL DEFORMATION ZONE. MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD
TRIGGER A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW, ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN
INITIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30 BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS SUFFICIENTLY VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING, THE
WET-BULB EFFECT, AND CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR PRECIP
TYPE TO BECOME ALL SNOW. A SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST LOW/MID-
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND NNW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER/DOWNWIND OF THE ~1C ICE-FREE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE, WEAK
LAKE-INDUCED CAPE, AND THE SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESS SHOULD PERMIT
A FEW HOURS OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW (LENS) TO OCCUR GENERALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE, BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY 1" OR LESS IN OUR CWA, BUT LOCALIZED
TOTALS OF 2-3" ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO THE LENS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
3.) STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
IMPACT OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC BRIEFLY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES E'WARD ACROSS
OUR REGION AND THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND VICINITY. LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH
ONLY THE 20'S IN NW PA AND MAINLY THE MID 20'S TO MID 30'S IN
NORTHERN OH AMIDST CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA. NOTE: NORMAL HIGHS
ARE NEAR 40F AND NORMAL LOWS ARE NEAR 25F THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
OUR CWA. DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
CYCLONIC W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION AS WE REMAIN WITHIN THE COLD SECTOR,
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO AFFECT OUR CWA,
AND THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM NEAR THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. PRIMARILY BELOW-
NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAY ALLOW PERIODS OF
LIGHT PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, TO IMPACT OUR REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE LATEST TRENDS IN NWP
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A S'WARD SHIFT IN THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS. BASED ON THESE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS, VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED IN OUR REGION. DURING MONDAY NIGHT, A WARM FRONT
SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER
PRECIP. THIS PRECIP MAY CHANGE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN TO
PLAIN RAIN AS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA WITH HEIGHT CAUSES AN
ELEVATED MELTING LAYER TO FORM, DEEPEN, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS. STAY TUNED TO CONTINUED FORECAST
UPDATES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS LESS
CERTAIN THIS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN SIZABLE SPREAD IN NWP
MODEL GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL, CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO SW'ERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT NORTHERN
OH AND NW PA. A WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD
THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND ALLOW NEAR-NORMAL TO ABOVE-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. NEAR-NORMAL OR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT POTENTIALLY WAVERS BETWEEN
THE GREAT LAKES AND ROUGHLY THE OH VALLEY AS MULTIPLE MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONES DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ALONG THE FRONT, YET
PRIMARILY WAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFFECTS OUR REGION.
PERIODS OF PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE, IN PART TO MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS 06Z TAF UPDATE WILL
BE FOR SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ABOUT 09Z
OR 10Z OVERNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL MOVE IN LATE
SATURDAY EVENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST 11-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, A STRONG LLJ OF
40-50 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A
PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET
UNTIL 09-10Z SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10
KNOTS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-30. PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
MARINE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY, THERE WAS AN EXCELLENT VIEW FROM
SATELLITE OF THE REMAINING ICE ACROSS LAKE ERIE. MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL BASIN IS NOW OPEN WITH THE WESTERN BASIN ICE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING. IN THE EASTERN BASIN, THE VAST MAJORITY OF ICE
STILL EXISTS, HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT
ICE CRACKS ARE OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE. AS AN
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, MULTIPLE PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE ICE AND FRACTURE IT EVEN
MORE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
BEFORE BACKING TO WESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NUDGE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO
BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT INTO TUESDAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME, BUT WAVES WITHIN OPEN
WATERS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET AT TIMES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...77
MARINE...04
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