543
FXUS61 KCLE 280808
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
308 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WEATHER HAS TRENDED WARMER AND WETTER STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY TONIGHT, THOUGH ROAD IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED.
2) WET AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
1) A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH, ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET, WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE MOSTLY SNOW,
THOUGH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN COULD BE
BRIEFLY POSSIBLY FOR OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO
(KNOX-HOLMES AREA). THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION THERE, AS IT PRODUCES A MORE DEVELOPED LOW-
LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARM NOSE ALOFT. WITH THAT SAID,
ANTECEDENT ROAD/GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WARM ENOUGH
TO LIMIT IMPACTS. ELSEWHERE, SNOW AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH, WITH LESS THAN AN INCH.
2) AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TOWARDS
THE EASTERN CONUS BY TUESDAY, WHERE IT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS, MOVING LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY
TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE, RETURN FLOW OF GULF AIR WILL BRING WARM,
MOIST CONDITIONS NORTHWARD, SETTING UP A STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER US AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN (AT TIMES).
RAIN SHOWERS MAY COME AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION INITIALLY FALLS AS FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 40S. THE GREATEST QPF
SIGNAL RIGHT NOW IS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE NBM
HAS A 50-75 OF QPF > 1". THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WHICH CAN BE
CONSIDERED A REASONABLE WORSE CASE SCENARIO, IS AROUND 1.75".
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY DRY AS RIVER FLOW IS RELATIVELY
LOW, AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST OHIO (INCLUDING LUCAS, WOOD, AND
PARTS OF HANCOCK AND OTTAWA) ARE ACTUALLY STILL UNDER A D3
EXTREME DROUGHT. SO WHILE THIS IS A NOTABLE QPF SIGNAL, FLOODING
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS. IT'S LIKELY WE SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF
HIGHS IN TO 60S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH REPEATED
RAINFALL, HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE COULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR FLOODING BY LATE WEEK, BUT THE
DETAILS ARE A LITTLE FUZZY AT THIS POINT. CSU ML SHOWS THIS
POTENTIAL, WITH A >5% CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY (CONSISTENT WITH AN ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT).
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN FOR THIS 06Z TAF UPDATE WILL
BE FOR SOME NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ABOUT 09Z
OR 10Z OVERNIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL MOVE IN LATE
SATURDAY EVENING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST 11-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, A STRONG LLJ OF
40-50 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED A
PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE JET
UNTIL 09-10Z SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10
KNOTS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-30. PERIODS OF NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
MARINE
THE CENTRAL BASIN IS NOW OPEN WITH WESTERN BASIN ICE COVERAGE
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. WHEREAS THE EASTERN BASIN REMAINS MOSTLY
ICE COVERED, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT CRACKS IN THE COVERAGE EXIST. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES, UNSETTLED WEATHER, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ICE COVERAGE, SHIFT AROUND
THE REMAINING ICE SHEET, AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL FRACTURES.
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
NORTHERLY WHILE DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT REMAINING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. WINDS RETURN NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY, WINDS TURN EASTERLY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES AS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME. WAVES IN ICE-FREE
AREAS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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