051
FXUS61 KCLE 281920
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
220 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IN NE OH
AND NW PA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED IMPACTS.
2) WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE FLOODING AND INCREASING FLOW IN AREA
RIVERS AND CREEKS.
DISCUSSION
1) A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WILL FLAT-LINE WITH PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME SNOW WITH SNOW
REACHING THE GROUND IN WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS AND MOVING OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. MOST FOLKS SHOULD AT LEAST SEE SOME FLAKES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANY MEANINGFUL COATING WOULD PROBABLY BE IN NE OH AND
NW PA WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. THERE SHOULDN'T BE TOO
MUCH IMPACT WITH THE SNOW GIVEN THE TIMING AND THE WARMER
ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS FROM SUNSHINE TODAY AND RECENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
2) STARTING ON TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION AND
BRING A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE TO THE REGION. FOR STARTERS, THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO SURGE BACK INTO THE 50S ON
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND
EVEN 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AS STRONG WARM SECTOR BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. MORE IMPORTANTLY THOUGH, THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
A WET PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH MULTIPLE ROUND OF RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL IN ALL, THE FORECAST
AREA IS LOOKING AT ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH PERIODIC RAIN EXPECTED. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD RISK IS NOT
VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR WATER TO DRAIN. IN ADDITION, SOME OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A DROUGHT (PARTICULARLY IN NW OH) AND COULD USE SOME
WATER TO HELP RESTORE SOIL MOISTURE AND LOW WATER LEVELS ON THE
RIVERS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THERE IS A PERIOD THAT
COULD OVERPERFORM AND ALLOW FOR SOME NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OR WHERE SOIL MOISTURE IS HIGHER
WITH THE RECENT MELTED SNOWPACK. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION, BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR POOR FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN THUNDER RIGHT NOW AS THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A WEAK CLIPPER
IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS, WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW
TOO. THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER, SO SHIFTED THE
START TIMES OF SNOW IN THE TAFS UP BY AN HOUR OR TWO. THE SNOW
WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN MVFR IMPACTS, WITH THE
IFR BEING LOWER CONFIDENCE HENCE THE CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR IS AT KCLE, KMFD, KCAK,
KYNG, AND KERI. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
NNW WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NE
AND DECREASE TO 5-15 KNOTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. NE
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-20 KNOTS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. PERIODS OF NON- VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
MARINE
THE CENTRAL BASIN IS NOW OPEN WITH WESTERN BASIN ICE COVERAGE
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. WHEREAS THE EASTERN BASIN REMAINS MOSTLY
ICE COVERED, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT CRACKS IN THE COVERAGE EXIST. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES, UNSETTLED WEATHER, AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ICE COVERAGE, SHIFT AROUND
THE REMAINING ICE SHEET, AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL FRACTURES.
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
NORTHERLY WHILE DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT REMAINING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. WINDS RETURN NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY, WINDS TURN EASTERLY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NO MARINE HEADLINES AS SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME. WAVES IN ICE-FREE
AREAS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...13
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