803
FXUS61 KCLE 010741
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
241 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WET AND WARM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. LIMITED IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
3) WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING AND RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
DISCUSSION
1) A QUICK ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS THIS MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF I-77 . DRY-LOW LEVELS DID
PREVENT SNOW FROM BEGINNING UNTIL AROUND 11 PM - 12 AM, WHICH IS
LIKELY TO LOWER OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS. THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS
WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING, MAINLY IN
LAKE/ASHTABULA COUNTIES, AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS, SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO STICK TO PAVEMENT, LIMITING
ANY ROAD IMPACTS. ANY SNOW THAT DOES STICK WON'T LAST LONG AS IT
MELTS WITH SUNNY SKIES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED.
2) AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE TO THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO BROAD SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING, WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
NOSE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A VERTICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE BRIEFLY FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ADVANCING
PRECIPITATION.SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH ONLY MARGINALLY SO.
CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THIS POINT. IT IS VERY
DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION/TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL
IMPACT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, THERE IS ALSO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION LOCATION/TIMING. NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING A GLAZE OF ICE, WHICH
IS WHERE THERE'S LIKELY TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP OF COLD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OHIO (UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURE) AND
NORTHWEST OHIO (UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIPITATION). WE SHOULD START
TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA ONCE WE GET INTO RANGE OF HI-RES GUIDANCE
(12Z CYCLE ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN RANGE). WHERE FREEZING RAIN
OCCURS, A LIGHT GLAZE COULD MAKE THING SLICK BEFORE TEMPERATURE
WARM UP TO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
3) A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM,
MOIST AIR TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND (AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK TOO).
MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER THE AREA AND SEVERAL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCAL POINTS FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
OF RAINY WEATHER. A FEW SPECIFIC POINTS WORTH MENTIONING
REGARDING THIS PERIOD:
-CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND
WARM WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT DETAILS.
-CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FLOODING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. IT'S
LIKELY WE SEE AT LEAST NUISANCE FLOODING (I.E. PONDING NEAR
CURBS, STANDING WATER IN PARKING LOTS/YARDS, MINOR BASEMENT
SEEPAGE, OR FLOODED PARKS FROM HIGH WATER LEVELS ON
RIVERS/CREEKS) BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HIGHER IMPACTS.
-THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY. CONVECTION COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGHER QPF/FLOODING POTENTIAL.
-FRIDAY HAS THE BEST OVERLAP OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND CONSEQUENTIALLY, A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
-FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST, AND
COULD CHALLENGE RECORD DAILY HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN. MOSTLY TAF
LOCATIONS HAVE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AND CEILINGS AS OF LATE
THIS SATURDAY EVENING. WE EXPECTED CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR TO
LOWER END MVFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ERI
WITH 1SM TO 2SM SNOW WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 1500 FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. WE HAVE MENTIONED PROB30 OR TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE 3SM TO 5SM
LIGHT SNOW AND CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING TO VFR CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
ABOUT 09Z OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. PERIODS OF NON-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE
PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW 10-20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY TO 5-10 KNOTS WHILE BECOMING
EASTERLY. FLOW WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY BEFORE
RETURNING EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRIMARILY OFFSHORE FLOW 10-15 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
SHIFTING AND DECAY OF REMAINING LAKE ICE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...13
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