648
FXUS61 KCLE 012251
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
551 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WET AND WARM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ALLOWING FOR A LIMITED
EXPOSURE RISK.
2) A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
3) WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING AND RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD ADVECTIVE FLOW HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUOUSLY RUN BELOW MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE COVERED
LAKE ERIE IN NE OH AND NW PA. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
BE LUCKY TO ACHIEVE 30 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
UNDERPERFORMANCE TODAY IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT
AS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATE OUT. MANY
AREAS WILL GET INTO THE TEENS FOR LOWS BUT SOME SHELTERED AREAS
OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL LIKELY SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A LIMITED EXPOSURE
RISK FOR THOSE OUTDOORS OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARM FRONT WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEK. FOR TUESDAY
MORNING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION
TO OVERRUN THE WARM FRONT. THIS WOULD BE IN AN AREA WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS ON TUESDAY
MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S. WITH PRECIPITATION
BEING RAIN IN THE WARM NOSE OF THE WARM FRONT, ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE WOULD BE FREEZING RAIN UNTIL
TEMPERATURES IMPROVE LATER ON TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, A
FREEZING RAIN THREAT REMAINS FOR TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME. ANY INITIAL
PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND THE
CHARACTERIZATION MAY BE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAN RAIN. IN
ADDITION, THE FRONT IS GOING TO ADVANCE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKLY, EVEN WHEN INTERACTING WITH THE COLD LAKE ERIE, AS THERE
WILL BE SUPPORT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THE FRONT MAY BE SLOWER IN FAR NW OH AND NW PA/FAR NE OH, WHERE
FREEZING RAIN MAY LAST LONGER. THESE AREAS WOULD BE THE ONES TO
BE CONCERNED ABOUT FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS, IF THEY
MATERIALIZE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE FORECAST FOR A MILD AND WET WEATHER WEEK CONTINUES FOR
TUESDAY ONWARD. ONCE THE WARM FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD UPWARD INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS
EVEN TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WE KNOW
THAT WARM WEATHER IN OHIO AND NW PA IN EARLY MARCH DOESN'T
HAPPEN FOR FREE AND THE PAYMENT WILL BE THAT THE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL,
THE CHARACTER OF THE RAIN WILL BE PERIODIC. BELIEVE THAT MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL GET ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND IT
COULD BE AN EFFICIENT INCH OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME NUISANCE FLOODING. THE MAIN LOW WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL,
BUT QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE LOWER WITH A PROGRESSING SYSTEM. THERE
APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL THAT WOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE FLOODING THREAT SEEMS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS TWO
INCHES OF RAIN OR SO OVER SEVERAL DAYS CAN LIKELY BE HANDLED BY
MOST AREAS AND MAY ALLOW FOR AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS TO BE
RESTORED, ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO WHERE A DROUGHT PERSISTS. IF
THESE ROUNDS OF RAIN BECOME MORE INTENSE OR CLOSER TOGETHER IN
TIMING, THEN THE FLOODING THREAT COULD INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF UPDATE. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL DRIFT THROUGH OUR SKIES TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK OTHER
THAN WIND SHIFTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND DRIFTING EAST MONDAY WILL LEAD TO NE
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT TURNING E MONDAY, THEN SE TO ESE AT 5-10
KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERALLY E WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING S TO SW AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE OVERALL E FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
BROKEN/ROTTED ICE WESTWARD INTO OR TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN, WHERE
WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN FURTHER MELTING OF THE ICE.
THE REMAINING ICE IS THEN LIKELY TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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