830
FXUS61 KCLE 020648
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WET AND WARM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
2) WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING AND RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERAL UPCOMING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS POSSIBLE AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT IS COUPLED
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ANTICIPATE FOR ANY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN WITH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGHEST HREF PROBABILITIES (35-45%)
FOR ACCUMULATED FREEZING RAIN (>0.01) REMAIN LOCALIZED TO
EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. PROBABILITIES
DECREASE TO 15-25% ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED AN
HWO MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE, THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY EVALUATE
OTHER MESSAGING STRATEGIES IF CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARM, ACTIVE, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SURGE INTO THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
LOW 70S ON SATURDAY. LATEST 7-DAY WPC QPF TOTALS GENERALLY SHOW
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. STILL NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
FLOOD THREAT AS 2-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIKELY BE HANDLED. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE PROLONGED SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS AND UPCOMING
RAIN MAY ALLOW FOR AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS TO BE RESTORED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING
NUISANCE FLOODING IMPACTS IF ANYTHING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THIS TAF UPDATE. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE SKIES THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
OVERALL QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK OTHER
THAN WIND SHIFTS. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND DRIFTING EAST MONDAY WILL LEAD TO NE
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT TURNING E MONDAY, THEN SE TO ESE AT 5-10
KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GENERALLY E WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
AT 5-10 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING S TO SW AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE OVERALL E FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK WILL LIKELY PUSH THE
BROKEN/ROTTED ICE WESTWARD INTO OR TOWARD THE WESTERN BASIN, WHERE
WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL AID IN FURTHER MELTING OF THE ICE.
THE REMAINING ICE IS THEN LIKELY TO SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN BASINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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