278
FXUS61 KCLE 021124
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
624 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WET AND WARM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
2) WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING AND RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERAL UPCOMING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS POSSIBLE AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT IS COUPLED
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ANTICIPATE FOR ANY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN WITH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGHEST HREF PROBABILITIES (35-45%)
FOR ACCUMULATED FREEZING RAIN (>0.01) REMAIN LOCALIZED TO
EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. PROBABILITIES
DECREASE TO 15-25% ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED AN
HWO MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE, THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY EVALUATE
OTHER MESSAGING STRATEGIES IF CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARM, ACTIVE, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SURGE INTO THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
LOW 70S ON SATURDAY. LATEST 7-DAY WPC QPF TOTALS GENERALLY SHOW
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. STILL NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
FLOOD THREAT AS 2-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIKELY BE HANDLED. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE PROLONGED SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS AND UPCOMING
RAIN MAY ALLOW FOR AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS TO BE RESTORED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING
NUISANCE FLOODING IMPACTS IF ANYTHING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OVERCAST SKIES WITH UPPER-
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL MOVE OUT OF HERE, GIVING WAY TO SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COME BACK LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND RAIN SHOWERS BUILDING FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING.
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD'S LEADING EDGE BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM UP DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE OCCURRENCE OF
FREEZING RAIN AT TAF SITES, EXCEPT TOL WHERE COLD FLOW OFF OF
LAKE ERIE INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING RAIN THERE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MARINE
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK OTHER
THAN WIND SHIFTS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY WITH WEAK EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HANGS
AROUND SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE
ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
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