284
FXUS61 KCLE 021757
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1257 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WET AND WARM CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ONWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
2) WARMER CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE
FLOODING AND RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERAL UPCOMING ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE REMAINS POSSIBLE AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT IS COUPLED
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. ANTICIPATE FOR ANY AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO
RAIN WITH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HIGHEST HREF PROBABILITIES (35-45%)
FOR ACCUMULATED FREEZING RAIN (>0.01) REMAIN LOCALIZED TO
EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. PROBABILITIES
DECREASE TO 15-25% ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED AN
HWO MENTION WITH THIS PACKAGE, THOUGH FUTURE SHIFTS MAY EVALUATE
OTHER MESSAGING STRATEGIES IF CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
FREEZING RAIN INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WARM, ACTIVE, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SURGE INTO THE
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE
LOW 70S ON SATURDAY. LATEST 7-DAY WPC QPF TOTALS GENERALLY SHOW
BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. STILL NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE
FLOOD THREAT AS 2-2.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS
WILL LIKELY BE HANDLED. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE PROLONGED SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS AND UPCOMING
RAIN MAY ALLOW FOR AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS TO BE RESTORED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION, BUT CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTING
NUISANCE FLOODING IMPACTS IF ANYTHING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME RAIN SPREADING IN ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES AHEAD OF THAT FRONT BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH IFR AT MFD/CAK/YNG. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IFR IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH (PARTICULARLY AT FDY/CLE/ERI)
THOUGH WITH DRIER LOW-LEVELS FARTHER NORTH, CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS
HIGH...THIS WILL BE MONITORED. SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY RAIN, ESPECIALLY AT MFD/CAK/YNG. HAVE A
PROB30 FOR -FZRA AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, AS AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
WARMING FURTHER TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS
NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL AND INITIAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE GROUND WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT <10KT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
PRIMARILY LIGHT (15KT OR LESS) EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE. ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO WANT TO DRIFT WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST AND THEN SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
WINDS THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (TO 20KT OR SO) IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE WIND SHIFT WILL CAUSE ICE TO
DRIFT MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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