563
FXUS61 KCLE 021823
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND POSSIBLY NE OH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE AND IMPACTS REMAIN LOW AT THIS POINT.
2) A WARMER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN TYPICAL PROBLEM SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR FREEZING RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS REMAINS LOW.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COMBAT LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WHICH COULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER,
VIRGA, AND/OR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING
AFTER SUNRISE. THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER IF
PRECIP STARTS EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE MARGINAL AND WILL DICTATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE; COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN. EITHER WAY, THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD
OF FREEZING RAIN IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NW PA
(PRIMARILY CRAWFORD COUNTY) AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEASTERN OHIO. ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT (A TRACE TO
MAYBE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AND ANY RESULTING IMPACTS
SHOULD IMPROVE AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE CAMS AND
FORECAST/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS; AN SPS OR EVEN A SHORT-FUSED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE FORECAST TRENDS MORE
PESSIMISTIC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WARMER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS ACROSS THE REGION
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. POPS ARE
HIGHEST BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER POPS
ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AT SOME
POINT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA (GENERALLY SOUTH
OF U.S. ROUTE 30) WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD ADD UP TO 1.5 TO LOCALLY 2+ INCHES.
ELSEWHERE, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE UP TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
OF RAIN IN THE SPAN OF THREE DAYS. IN GENERAL, THE FLOODING RISK
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT MINOR FLOODING ON
THE MORE RESPONSIVE CREEKS AND STREAMS PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA AND IN POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS. THERE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND POSSIBLY 70S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AFTER TONIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME RAIN SPREADING IN ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES AHEAD OF THAT FRONT BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HAVE MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING IN TO ALL TAF SITES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH IFR AT MFD/CAK/YNG. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IFR IS POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH (PARTICULARLY AT FDY/CLE/ERI)
THOUGH WITH DRIER LOW-LEVELS FARTHER NORTH, CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS
HIGH...THIS WILL BE MONITORED. SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY RAIN, ESPECIALLY AT MFD/CAK/YNG. HAVE A
PROB30 FOR -FZRA AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, AS AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
WARMING FURTHER TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN IS
NOT CURRENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR PREVAILING, AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MARGINAL AND INITIAL RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE GROUND WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT <10KT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
PRIMARILY LIGHT (15KT OR LESS) EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE. ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO WANT TO DRIFT WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST AND THEN SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
WINDS THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (TO 20KT OR SO) IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE WIND SHIFT WILL CAUSE ICE TO
DRIFT MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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