940
FXUS61 KCLE 030710
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
210 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
THE FLOODING RISK HAS DECREASED AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
LATER THIS MORNING.
2) TRENDING WARMER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A LIGHT GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. ANTICIPATE FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
STALLED FRONT HAS LARGELY SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW HAS GENERALLY 0.25
TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30. WITH THE
SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY THE FLOODING RISK HAS
DECREASED, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RISES TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS. LATEST NASA SPORT GUIDANCE KEEPS NEARLY ALL LOCAL CREEKS
AND STREAMS BELOW ACTION STAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TODAY WARMING INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAKING A RUN
AT LOW 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WITH THIS 06Z TAF UPDATE WILL
BE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING DOWN TO IFR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE CEILINGS LOWERING IFR LATER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD IFR TO SOME
POSSIBLE LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND FOR TUESDAY AND THROUGH
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF LIGHT FOG/MIST/DRIZZLE CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTION OF 2SM TO
5SM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THE ONSET OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. WE
HAVE THIS POTENTIAL MENTIONED IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR MOST OF THE
TAFS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL START OUT EASTERLY
5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WIND WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
THE END FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL NON-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
PRIMARILY LIGHT (15KT OR LESS) EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE LAKE. ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO WANT TO DRIFT WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST AND THEN SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
WINDS THEN SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PERIOD OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (TO 20KT OR SO) IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE WIND SHIFT WILL CAUSE ICE TO
DRIFT MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ012>014-022-023.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...77
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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