284
FXUS61 KCLE 031800
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
100 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY,
THE FLOODING RISK HAS DECREASED AS THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
LATER THIS MORNING.
2) TRENDING WARMER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING. ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION, SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A LIGHT GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. ANTICIPATE FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
STALLED FRONT HAS LARGELY SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW HAS GENERALLY 0.25
TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30. WITH THE
SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY THE FLOODING RISK HAS
DECREASED, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RISES TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS. LATEST NASA SPORT GUIDANCE KEEPS NEARLY ALL LOCAL CREEKS
AND STREAMS BELOW ACTION STAGE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TODAY WARMING INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH SOME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAKING A RUN
AT LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SMALL AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE LOCAL AREA WHICH COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FROM KMFD TO KYNG THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A MIXED
BAG OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
DRIZZLE/MIST/SHOWERS/LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG (POSSIBLY DENSE ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA) FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL NON-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LAKE ERIE IS STILL MOSTLY ICE COVERED, BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ICE COVERAGE TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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