501
FXUS61 KCLE 032329
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
629 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY, DENSE FOG TOMORROW MORNING. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY COOLER DUE TO
BEING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AND THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE LOW LEVELS WILL
STAY FAIRLY SATURATED. AN INVERSION WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. FOG MAY LAST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING UNTIL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE AND THE LOW LEVELS BECOME
LESS SATURATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 DUE TO THE WAVERING STATIONARY
FRONT. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL END AS THE FRONT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, QPF TOTALS
WILL REACH AROUND 0.5-1.0" ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TOTALS
NEAR 1.5" POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PW VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.00-1.20"
WHICH SIT WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. GIVEN THE
REGION HAS BEEN WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON PRECIPITATION FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL MONTHS, FLOODING SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN SINCE
THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.
THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF RIVER/STREAM RESPONSES, GENERALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN THE QPF FOR THE AREA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING
ISOLATED HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERS THE REGION LATE THAT
EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING AS MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING WITH THE COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S GENERATING SOME INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL BE A TIME FRAME TO MONITOR AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
WITH THE TEMPERATURES, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S, THEN JUMP INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, LOW STRATUS HAS OVERTAKEN
THE AIRSPACE WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AND IN MOST CASES,
CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT. OUTSIDE OF A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN EXITING
EAST THIS EVENING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A QUICK BOUNCE TO IFR FOR
SOME, THERE WILL BE NO REPRIEVE OF THESE LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT
AND ALL TERMINALS WILL BE SOCKED IN WITH LIFR. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS STRATUS LAYER LOWERING INTO A BANK
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE MOST LOCATIONS WITH
1/4SM OVERNIGHT, ACHIEVING MANY AIRPORT MINIMUMS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WIND WILL PICK UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND CEILINGS IN THE
500-1000 FT RANGE SHOULD RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LAKE ERIE IS STILL MOSTLY ICE COVERED, BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ICE COVERAGE TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...15
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