043
FXUS61 KCLE 040716
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. AN AREAWIDE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 11 AM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. LOW
VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
2) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY'S RAIN AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT FOR WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO
ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY, LOW
LEVELS WILL DRY SLIGHTLY AND ALLOW FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DISSIPATE
AROUND MIDDAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ANTICIPATE FOR A MOSTLY DRY
PERIOD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. SHOWERS RE-ENTER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
ON THURSDAY USHERING A WINDOW OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. QPF AMOUNTS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.75 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO
1.50 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. THE REGION
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS MUCH QPF, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW
RISES AT MORE RESPONSIVE CREEKS/STREAMS AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE QPF PLACEMENT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIMITED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 150-250 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW OF PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500-750 J/KG.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S LOOK TO RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, LOW STRATUS CONTINUES WITH
CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AND THE STRATUS DECK IS SETTLING INTO
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT INTO LIFR/VLIFR WITH DENSE FOG IN THE
REGION LARGELY ACHIEVING AIRPORT MINIMUMS. LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
WILL PICK UP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE STALLED FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING AND THE DENSE FOG SHOULD LIFT AND CEILINGS IN THE
500-1000 FT RANGE SHOULD RETURN. CEILINGS WILL FALL AGAIN
TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN ENTERS THE REGION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE WITH RAIN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY EVENING WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LAKE ERIE IS STILL MOSTLY ICE COVERED, BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ICE COVERAGE TO DECAY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...15
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