897
FZUS81 KCLE 111754
ICEGL
GREAT LAKES ICE BREAK-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
153 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
...MAXIMUM ICE COVERAGE FOR THE 2025-2026 SEASON WAS AVERAGE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ON THE WHOLE...
AS WE HEAD OUT OF WINTER AND INTO SPRING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS, GENERALLY EXPECTING A TYPICAL TRANSITION OUT OF ICE SEASON
WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERNS TYPICAL OF THE MID MARCH
THROUGH MID APRIL TIME FRAME. MELTING RATES WILL BE VARIABLE AS A
RESULT, BUT ICE COVERAGE WILL CONSISTENTLY CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A LATE ARCTIC AIR BURST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE A DAY
OR TWO OF THIN SHORE ICE MAY REAPPEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS EITHER WAY IN THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER 3-4 WEEK OUTLOOKS FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME SPAN ISSUED LAST WEEK. RECENT
MILD CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE SUPPORTED
MELTING ON ALL OF THE LAKES, WHILE INCREASING DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
INCREASING SUN ANGLES ALSO WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ADDITIONAL ICE
FORMATION.
THE 2025-2026 ICE SEASON WAS CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK LA NINA EVENT
WHICH WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS. THERE WERE TWO MAIN WEATHER STORIES TO THIS PAST
SEASON, DURING THE LATE FALL AND WINTER TIME FRAME. THE FIRST WAS
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND EARLY COLD THIS LATE FALL INTO WINTER FROM
THANKSGIVING TO CHRISTMAS, AND THE SECOND WAS A PERIOD OF CONSISTENT
DEEP COLD THAT SPANNED FROM MID JANUARY THROUGH MID FEBRUARY WITH
ALMOST NO BREAKS IN TERMS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE EARLY
COLD REMOVED THE WARM SEASON HEAT FROM THE LAKES FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY,
BUT THE WINDY CONDITIONS, ONCE THE HEAT WAS REMOVED, ACTED AS A
SLIGHT INHIBITOR TO ICE FORMATION EARLY ON IN THE SEASON. IN THE
END, THE NET RESULT WAS AN AVERAGE START TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE
FORMATION ON THE GREAT LAKES. THE DEEP COLD THAT FOLLOWED IN MID
JANUARY RESULTED IN LAKE ERIE FREEZING ALMOST ENTIRELY, PEAKING
AROUND 95 PERCENT IN FEBRUARY. LAKE HURON ALSO ACHIEVED SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE, PEAKING AT JUST UNDER 80 PERCENT, AND LAKE SUPERIOR HAD A
PEAK OF JUST OVER 50 PERCENT. THERE WAS A LATE RESURGENCE OF
COVERAGE INTO EARLY MARCH OF 2026. OVERALL, THE GREAT LAKES ICE
COVERAGE PEAKED AROUND 58 PERCENT IN A COUPLE OF DAILY SPIKES, BUT
THE AVERAGE OF THOSE PEAK NUMBERS WERE IN THE LOW-50S PERCENT RANGE.
LOOKING BACK AT THE WINTER SEASON, FOR JANUARY AND FEBRUARY, GREAT
LAKES LOCATIONS WERE, ON AVERAGE, 3-7F BELOW NORMAL FOR EACH MONTH.
FEBRUARY WAS MORE MIXED WITH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH AROUND 1-3F WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1-4F.
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS OF MARCH 11TH IS TOTAL ICE
COVERAGE STANDS AT APPROXIMATELY 21 PERCENT, AND IS ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND. THE FIRST THIRD OF THE MONTH OF MARCH HAS BEEN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE WITH A MORE
HIGHLY VARIABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT TEN DAYS AND HEADING INTO
THE END OF MARCH. THIS INCLUDES THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE SEASON
ARCTIC AIRMASS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION OR EXPANSION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER.
SIGNIFICANT ICE REMAINS IN PLACES LIKE (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) THE
EASTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE, AND FAST ICE IN THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC
AND WHITEFISH BAY.
FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS
COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON TUE MAR 10:
LOCATION DATE NORMAL CURRENT
----------------------------------------
DULUTH, MN MAR 9 1739 1811
MARQUETTE, MI MAR 9 1523 1537
SAU_S_MAR, MI MAR 9 1235 1385
GREENBAY, WI MAR 9 999 1048
MILWAUKEE, WI MAR 9 460 589
CHICAGO, IL MAR 9 332 322
MUSKEGON, MI MAR 9 317 489
ALPENA, MI MAR 9 915 1035
DETROIT, MI MAR 9 339 506
TOLEDO, OH MAR 9 185 487
CLEVELAND, OH MAR 9 84 356
BUFFALO, NY MAR 9 427 722
NORMAL TEMPS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUE MAR 10
LOCATION HIGH LOW
----------------------------------------------
DULUTH,MN 34 16
MARQUETTE,MI 34 17
GREENBAY,WI 40 21
MILWAUKEE,WI 42 26
CHICAGO,IL 46 28
MUSKEGON,MI 42 26
ALPENA,MI 38 18
DETROIT,MI 45 27
TOLEDO,OH 46 27
CLEVELAND,OH 46 28
BUFFALO,NY 42 25
WHEN ICE EXISTS EXTENSIVELY IN THE RIVERS, FLUSHING OF THE ICE
NORMALLY BEGINS THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC AND
THE ST. MARYS RIVER USUALLY SEE THEIR LAST ICE IN MID TO LATE APRIL.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ICE PRODUCT ISSUED FOR THE 2025-2026 ICE
SEASON. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE US NATIONAL ICE CENTER FOR THEIR
COORDINATION THIS SEASON. THE NEXT FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE
UPCOMING 2026-2027 WINTER SEASON WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER AND WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL ICE BEGINS
TO DEVELOP ON THE GREAT LAKES.
MARSALEK
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