724
FXUS61 KCLE 181124
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ON TRACK TO END EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THEY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NE OHIO AND NW PA, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
LOW-IMPACT, LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR COLDER CONDITIONS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA WILL MOVE OUT OVER
THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH ONLY MINOR
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS.
2) LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A BIGGER
COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...
A VERY RESILIENT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT
NORTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHERN CRAWFORD AND ERIE
COUNTIES IN PA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BAND IS STEADILY
DRIFTING NORTH AND FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED IN
RESPONSE TO BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A LOWERING
INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. BEFORE
THE BAND GETS OFFSHORE, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH
1 INCH SINCE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE FLOW BACKS IS
HELPING TO OVERCOME THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
LEVELS. THE HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 09Z SINCE
MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THEN, WITH JUST LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE
MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND TODAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL BE REINFORCED BY A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
(CLIPPER SYSTEMS), AND THAT WILL KEEP THE WARMEST AIR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION UNTIL A BETTER PUSH BY THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DIVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF
IT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS ENE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DEPARTS OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD DRIVE A SHIELD OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE ALOT OF DRY AIR TO
OVERCOME, SO NOT ALL OF THIS WILL REACH THE GROUND, BUT DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY, CONTINUING OVER NW PA TONIGHT, AS THIS BAND OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT GRADUALLY LIFTS THROUGH. ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LOW-IMPACT, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS OF A TRACE OR LESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30/LOW 40S TODAY GIVEN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION. AS THE WEAK LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY, THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIMITED, BUT SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT NEAR
THE LEFT EXIT OF A 120+ KNOT H3 JET OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
DRIVE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S. AGAIN, LOW-IMPACT, LIGHT PRECIP.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DROP FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE A STRONGER CLIPPER, SO
BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN DRIVE A BAND OF SHOWERS, BUT
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, THE STEADIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED
RAIN WILL PASS NE OF OUR REGION, SO THIS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT,
LOW-IMPACT PRECIP FOR OUR AREA FRIDAY AND MAINLY CONFINED TO NE
OHIO AND NW PA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE CLIPPER'S COLD
FRONT SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS FINALLY
WEAKENS ENOUGH FOR A PIECE OF THE WARMTH OVER THE PLAINS TO COME
EASTWARD. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT, LOW-IMPACT SHOWERS WILL
COME SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES STARTS TO DEEPEN AGAIN. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT WILL DEFLECT INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGHING BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, BUT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL
BE MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
REGARDS TO TIMING OR IMPACT. NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER CONDITIONS, SO HANDLED SHOWERS POTENTIAL
WITH VCSH. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ARE
THROUGHOUT TODAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS SNEAKING INTO THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY OF 10-12 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
LOCALIZED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
I71 DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT, ALL WINDS SHOULD
WEAKEN TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH NO GUSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE NEXT WARM FRONT.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE CALMED THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
OF 5-15 KNOTS BEING OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS
TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY TOUCHING 20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BASIN
INTO THURSDAY. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE THURSDAY, WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, MAINTAINING A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THIS
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY REQUIRE HEADLINES IN THE FUTURE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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