323
FXUS61 KCLE 181842
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
242 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PRIMARILY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THURSDAY MORNING.
2) A PAIR OF SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH PRIMARILY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, BRINGING MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST OHIO THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR, THOUGH MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LARGELY
LIMIT ANY ROAD IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE INTO
THE 40S BEHIND THE TROUGH BY EARLY TO MID-THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING GENERALLY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST
SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE RECOVERY NEAR THE US-30 AND EAST OF THE
I-71 CORRIDORS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD YIELD
SURFACE INSTABILITY AROUND 500 J/KG. CHANCES ARE LOW, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
STRONG NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHTLY STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN WITH
THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY OVERLAP
PROBABILITIES MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
TO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON
MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR IN
WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
BE TOO LOW FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY SO HAVE
INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR
CEILINGS FOR KTOL/KFDY/KMFD/KCLE. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS
IS A BIT HIGHER AT EASTERN TERMINALS, WHERE THERE ARE
PREVAILING GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
ABOUT 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAVE CALMED THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
OF 5-15 KNOTS BEING OBSERVED FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS
TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
POSSIBLY TOUCHING 20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN BASIN
INTO THURSDAY. AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE THURSDAY, WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BECOME LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, MAINTAINING A
GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO 15-25 KNOTS BEHIND IT. THIS
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY REQUIRE HEADLINES IN THE FUTURE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...15
MARINE...04
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