532
FXUS61 KCLE 190811
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
411 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE CHANCE
OF FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. RAIN CHANCES WERE ALSO
INCREASED AREAWIDE FRIDAY AS THE STRONGER LOW DROPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF RAIN STILL
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOW-IMPACT AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
2) WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING
THE REGION. THE FIRST FRIDAY WILL BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND A FEW POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE SECOND SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN MUCH COLDER AIR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1...
EARLY MORNING INFRARED SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOWER 48 CHARACTERIZED
BY A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS GENERATING
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT OF A 120+ KNOT H3 JET STREAK. THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY TODAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY RAISED POPS FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH A LOT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE, BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS MORNING, LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (0.05 INCH
OR LESS), AND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL
BE IN NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET SUPPORT.
REMOVED THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING SINCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS AND
SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE BEFORE ANY PRECIP BEGINS.
KEY MESSAGE #2...
A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE IS STILL ON
TRACK TO DROP THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED H3 JET STREAK (120+ KNOTS) WILL BE IN
MUCH CLOSER PROXIMITY WITH THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION PROVIDING ABUNDANT LIFT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH A 40-50 KNOT WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING WILL GENERATE A
LARGER SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE MAIN SWATH OF
MEASURABLE RAIN TRACKING THROUGH NE OHIO AND NW PA FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT. RAISED POPS EVERYWHERE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NE COUNTIES.
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRIEFLY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE FAR
SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN SHIELD BEFORE THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE SINCE THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS QUICKLY IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD QUICKLY PINCH OFF THE
INSTABILITY. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR >250 JOULES OF SBCAPE ARE
HIGHEST ALONG A ROUGHLY MARION TO MT. VERNON LINE BUT STILL ONLY
IN THE 20-40% RANGE, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING WILL BE IN OUR SW COUNTIES. SEVERE
WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL
HAIL IF ANY CONVECTION MATERIALIZES GIVEN COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
QUICKLY BRING THE WARMER AIR BACK SUNDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL START TO DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AGAIN, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT SURGE OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, AND THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG DYNAMICS AND
ASSOCIATED SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. AT THIS
POINT, THE BEST OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS TO
BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION IF THE BETTER INSTABILITY CAN TREND
NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL HAVE A FAVORABLE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH COLDER AIR AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
TROUGHING BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LARGELY GOING TO BE DEALING WITH 3-5KFT CEILINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TAKES
ITS TIME EXITING. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT TOL THIS MORNING IN A
TEMPO GROUP, BUT THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY. WINDS VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN, BUT UNDER 10KTS AND NO GUSTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
MARINE
WINDS VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN,
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY 15-20KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1-3FT EAST
OF CLEVELAND. A LATE FRIDAY COLD FRONT TURNS WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
10KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 1-3FT FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY AND WAVE HEIGHTS FALLING
BELOW 2FT. OFFSHORE WINDS 10-15KTS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY ONSHORE WINDS 20-
30KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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