145
FXUS61 KCLE 200945
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THIS UPDATE INVOLVED MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS FROM ROUGHLY KNOX
COUNTY TO MAHONING COUNTY IN OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PRIMARILY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF TODAY
AND SUNDAY.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, MARCH 27TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1:
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT
SWEEPS N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 3 AM EDT AND
MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS OUR CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT DAYBREAK THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS, AND AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES; LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND LOW-LEVEL
WAA IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE MID 50'S TO UPPER 60'S THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF, SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE, INCLUDING
TALL/SKINNY MUCAPE PROFILES, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND
MODERATE DCAPE AMIDST MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE
WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-90 AND EAST OF I-71. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS, ALBEIT LIMITED, EXISTS FROM ROUGHLY KNOX COUNTY
TO MAHONING COUNTY, WHERE RESIDENCE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE GREATER. ODDS FAVOR DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND VICINITY, AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE.
NET LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWS
REACHING THE 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT
E'WARD FROM NORTHERN OH AND NW PA AS A SURFACE LOW WOBBLES GENERALLY
E'WARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD SOUTHERN ON.
ACCORDINGLY, A SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS OVER/NEAR FAR-EASTERN LAKE ERIE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. ON SATURDAY, AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID
40'S TO LOWER 50'S IN NW PA AND THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 60'S IN
NORTHERN OH. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS SHOULD REACH MAINLY THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER
40'S SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE READINGS BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS AND THEN
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD WOBBLE GENERALLY SE'WARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY AND ALLOW THE TRAILING SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING, LOW-
LEVEL WAA, AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE 60'S OR
70'S AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE TO MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED. THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS
TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH IN OUR CWA, WHERE
RESIDENCE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE LONGER AND GREATER WARM
SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE #2:
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POST-
FRONT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER OUR CWA. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED VIA MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF
THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. CAA AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THE WET-BULB EFFECT, MAY ALLOW RAIN
TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS BY
DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30'S AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER IN OUR CWA THIS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY, AND EVENTUALLY CRESTS
E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION. CONTINUED CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30'S TO
MID 40'S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 20'S
TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAA AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND A
N'WARD WARM FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
REACH THE MID 40'S TO MID 50'S ON TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD WAVER IN A GENERALLY
NORTH-SOUTH MANNER IN/NEAR OUR CWA AS THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE TRACK
IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
AND SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH MORNING HOURS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW-
NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED, WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE
MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL AS WELL. HOWEVER, OUR ENTIRE
REGION SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50'S TO 60'S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z TODAY. SHRA AND ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM MFD-CLE AND EAST, BUT ONLY CARRYING SHRA
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW, AND THUNDER WOULD BE AN OCCURRENCE AFTER
THE 18Z TIME FRAME. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT LLWS TO RAMP
UP AFTER 09Z THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP WHILE A
SURFACE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. LLWS ENDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES AND WIND GUSTS BECOME EVIDENT IN THE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WNW 20-30KTS BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHERLY AND DECREASING BELOW 10KTS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ALSO
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO EITHER LOW END MVFR OF POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20KTS BEFORE A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH AFTER 18Z TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 10-15KTS
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY 1-3FT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO SATURDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
ONCE AGAIN 15-20KTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, SLATED FOR
AROUND 18Z SUNDAY. OPEN WATER WAVE HEIGHTS 1-3FT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY BECOMING 4-7FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-25KTS. WINDS EASE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT REMAIN ONSHORE 10-15KTS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS AT 2-4FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page