549
FXUS61 KCLE 201933
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASING THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. INCREASED SKY COVER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECREASING THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. DREARY WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
2) CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US-30.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-77, WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD AND ALONG OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, EVIDENT BY RECENT
GLACIATING CLOUD TOPS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN THE PRESENCE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE (GENERALLY BENEATH 850 MB) AND
ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS (5 TO 7 KNOTS). HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER DECREASED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE (SOME
SPOTS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S) AS WEAK, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY,
EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRESENT
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR, WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THIS SET UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE THAN TODAY'S (FRIDAY), THERE REMAIN LIMITING
FACTORS IN PLACE, INCLUDING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH IN TODAY'S GUIDANCE, MEANING THE
STRONGEST STORMS WOULD FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER NORTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION, THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD STILL YIELD A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CURRENT SWODY3 MARGINAL RISK AREA.
A BRIEF COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A THIRD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH SPECIFICS ON ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER SHARP DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWERS 40S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR
DETROIT TO CHICAGO AT 18Z. CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY VFR IN
SHOWERS BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT ERI WHERE
RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVIER. WE ALSO CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS.
LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AT MOST TERMINALS BY 21Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER DEVELOP LATER ALONG THE
FRONT BUT NOT LIKELY. A WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KNOTS OR LESS FORECAST.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH AN
IFR STRATUS DECK FILLING IN ACROSS NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA.
HAVE LOWERED CEILINGS AFTER 06Z WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
DROPPING BELOW 600 FEET. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN
SOME WIND OVERNIGHT HAVE ONLY STARTED TRENDING DOWN TO MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CLE AND IFR AT ERI/YNG/CAK. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY, WINDS MAY DECREASE DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT DOES MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE MID-SECTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT WITH MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
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