282
FXUS61 KCLE 210527
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
127 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DECREASING THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. INCREASED SKY COVER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE LAKESHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DECREASING THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. DREARY WEATHER EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
2) CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US-30.
3) ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY,
THOUGH IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-77, WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD AND ALONG OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, EVIDENT BY RECENT
GLACIATING CLOUD TOPS IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO IN THE PRESENCE OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THOUGH THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING GIVEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY BECOME
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG
GIVEN THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE (GENERALLY BENEATH 850 MB) AND
ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS (5 TO 7 KNOTS). HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. FURTHER DECREASED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE (SOME
SPOTS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 40S) AS WEAK, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY,
EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRESENT
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR, WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE APPROACHING 50 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THIS SET UP
APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE THAN TODAY'S (FRIDAY), THERE REMAIN LIMITING
FACTORS IN PLACE, INCLUDING MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH IN TODAY'S GUIDANCE, MEANING THE
STRONGEST STORMS WOULD FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA. IF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY CAN RECOVER NORTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION, THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD STILL YIELD A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CURRENT SWODY3 MARGINAL RISK AREA.
A BRIEF COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A THIRD SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH SPECIFICS ON ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER SHARP DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWERS 40S ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS
EVENING, LOW STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND SOME MIST/FOG AS WELL.
THIS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EROSION OF THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE
PLACE AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IFR/LIFR WILL BECOME VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY WHEN THE TRANSITION DOES
OCCUR HOWEVER. EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, AND LLWS
RETURNS WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY, WINDS MAY DECREASE DURING THE
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. A COLD FRONT DOES MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE MID-SECTION OF THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT WITH MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...10
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