690
FXUS61 KCLE 210715
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
315 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ON SUNDAY, THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, BUT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) REMAINS IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PRIMARILY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, MARCH 28TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD FROM OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW WOBBLES ESE'WARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TO SOUTHERN ON. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG RELATED TO
STRATUS INTERSECTING HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR STRATUS EXPANDING
DOWNWARD COURTESY OF SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING IN A FAIRLY
MOIST SUB-CLOUD LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW. DESPITE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT, A FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE COOL SECTOR SHOULD PERMIT A DRY FRONT
PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
MAINLY THE 50F TO 60F RANGE IN NW PA AND THE LOWER 50'S TO UPPER
60'S IN NORTHERN OH. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
40'S IN NW PA AND THE MID 40'S TO MID 50'S IN NORTHERN OH THIS
EVENING BEFORE READINGS MODERATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW- LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AND
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT DEEPENING
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD WOBBLE E'WARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND VICINITY, AND ALLOW THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MID-MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING,
LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE GULF SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE 60'S TO 70'S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SAME PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW WEAK TO
BORDERLINE MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DCAPE TO MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR,
ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30, WHERE
RESIDENCE TIME IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE GREATER. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DOWNSHEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
ALLOW STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FOLLOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RELEASE
WEAK TO BORDERLINE MODERATE AND ELEVATED CAPE AMIDST CONTINUED
MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, ORGANIZED, AND
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HAIL IS A CONCERN
WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT, AND ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD
FRONT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EML, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POST-
FRONT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED VIA MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THE WET-BULB
EFFECT, MAY ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ENDS BY DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN OUR CWA THIS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY, AND EVENTUALLY
CRESTS E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION. CONTINUED CAA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 30'S TO MID 40'S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST NNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~3C LAKE ERIE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND A N'WARD WARM FRONT PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40'S TO MID
50'S ON TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD WAVER
IN A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH MANNER IN/NEAR OUR CWA AS THE MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE TRACK IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
WET SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH
MORNING HOURS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL AS OUR REGION SHOULD MAINLY RESIDE IN THE COLD
SECTOR. HOWEVER, OUR ENTIRE REGION SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE-NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50'S TO 60'S.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER THIS UPCOMING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN ANOTHER RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST. NET CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40'S
TO NEAR 50F.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH EARLIER THIS
EVENING, LOW STRATUS IS DEVELOPING AND SOME MIST/FOG AS WELL.
THIS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS MIXING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EROSION OF THE INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO TAKE
PLACE AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z IN SOME LOCATIONS.
IFR/LIFR WILL BECOME VFR FAIRLY QUICKLY WHEN THE TRANSITION DOES
OCCUR HOWEVER. EASTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY, AND LLWS
RETURNS WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ON
SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10KTS TODAY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AROUND 10-20KTS AFTER A WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND AHEAD
OF A SUNDAY COLD FRONT. NEARSHORE WAVES UNDER 2FT, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES. WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY 15-25KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 4-6FT FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BASINS OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS EASE GRADUALLY THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE AS WELL THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK 10-15KTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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