583
FXUS61 KCLE 211101
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
701 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ON SUNDAY, THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, BUT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) REMAINS IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PRIMARILY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, MARCH 28TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD FROM OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW WOBBLES ESE'WARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TO SOUTHERN ON. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG RELATED TO
STRATUS INTERSECTING HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR STRATUS EXPANDING
DOWNWARD COURTESY OF SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING IN A FAIRLY
MOIST SUB-CLOUD LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW. DESPITE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT, A FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE COOL SECTOR SHOULD PERMIT A DRY FRONT
PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
MAINLY THE 50F TO 60F RANGE IN NW PA AND THE LOWER 50'S TO UPPER
60'S IN NORTHERN OH. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
40'S IN NW PA AND THE MID 40'S TO MID 50'S IN NORTHERN OH THIS
EVENING BEFORE READINGS MODERATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW- LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AND
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT DEEPENING
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD WOBBLE E'WARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND VICINITY, AND ALLOW THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EARLIER TREND IN FORECAST TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE IS LIKELY WHY SPC SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING,
LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE 60'S TO 70'S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SAME PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW WEAK TO BORDERLINE
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE DCAPE TO MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30, WHERE RESIDENCE TIME IN
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE GREATER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DOWNSHEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FOLLOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RELEASE WEAK
TO BORDERLINE MODERATE AND ELEVATED CAPE AMIDST CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, ORGANIZED, AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HAIL IS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE-
BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND ELEVATED
STORMS ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POST-
FRONT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED VIA MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THE WET-BULB
EFFECT, MAY ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ENDS BY DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN OUR CWA THIS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY, AND EVENTUALLY
CRESTS E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION. CONTINUED CAA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 30'S TO MID 40'S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST NNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~3C LAKE ERIE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND A N'WARD WARM FRONT PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40'S TO MID
50'S ON TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD WAVER
IN A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH MANNER IN/NEAR OUR CWA AS THE MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE TRACK IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
WET SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH
MORNING HOURS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL AS OUR REGION SHOULD MAINLY RESIDE IN THE COLD
SECTOR. HOWEVER, OUR ENTIRE REGION SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE-NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50'S TO 60'S.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER THIS UPCOMING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN ANOTHER RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST. NET CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40'S
TO NEAR 50F.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIFR STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT AS WILL THE VISIBILITIES IN
BR THIS MORNING, AND COULD TAKE UNTIL AFTER 16Z IN MANY CASES
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
REGION. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, AND WILL
SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL NECESSITATE LLWS IN THE TAFS TONIGHT WITH A
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION IN PLACE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY LESS THAN 10KTS, THEN SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT LESS THAN 10KTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOW CEILINGS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10KTS TODAY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AROUND 10-20KTS AFTER A WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND AHEAD
OF A SUNDAY COLD FRONT. NEARSHORE WAVES UNDER 2FT, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
IN THE OPEN WATER ZONES ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES. WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY 15-25KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 4-6FT FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BASINS OF THE LAKE. THESE WINDS EASE GRADUALLY THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE AS WELL THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME. OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN FOR MIDWEEK 10-15KTS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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