877
FXUS61 KCLE 211730
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ON SUNDAY, THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, BUT A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) REMAINS IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) PRIMARILY ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, MARCH 28TH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD FROM OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW WOBBLES ESE'WARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES
TO SOUTHERN ON. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG RELATED TO
STRATUS INTERSECTING HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR STRATUS EXPANDING
DOWNWARD COURTESY OF SUFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING IN A FAIRLY
MOIST SUB-CLOUD LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWING THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A SURFACE WARM FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW. DESPITE MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE WARM FRONT, A FAIRLY DRY LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE COOL SECTOR SHOULD PERMIT A DRY FRONT
PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
MAINLY THE 50F TO 60F RANGE IN NW PA AND THE LOWER 50'S TO UPPER
60'S IN NORTHERN OH. THE COOLEST HIGHS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
40'S IN NW PA AND THE MID 40'S TO MID 50'S IN NORTHERN OH THIS
EVENING BEFORE READINGS MODERATE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW- LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AND
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT DEEPENING
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD WOBBLE E'WARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND AND VICINITY, AND ALLOW THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS EARLIER TREND IN FORECAST TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE IS LIKELY WHY SPC SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING,
LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE 60'S TO 70'S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SAME PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW WEAK TO BORDERLINE
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE DCAPE TO MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30, WHERE RESIDENCE TIME IN
THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE GREATER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/MOIST
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DOWNSHEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE ORGANIZED. THE THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. FOR SEVERAL
HOURS FOLLOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RELEASE WEAK
TO BORDERLINE MODERATE AND ELEVATED CAPE AMIDST CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, ORGANIZED, AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HAIL IS A CONCERN WITH SURFACE-
BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND ELEVATED
STORMS ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LARGE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POST-
FRONT SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED VIA MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS. CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, AND THE WET-BULB
EFFECT, MAY ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ENDS BY DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN OUR CWA THIS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY, AND EVENTUALLY
CRESTS E'WARD ACROSS OUR REGION. CONTINUED CAA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 30'S TO MID 40'S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST NNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVER/DOWNWIND OF ~3C LAKE ERIE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AND A N'WARD WARM FRONT PASSAGE
SHOULD ALLOW LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 40'S TO MID
50'S ON TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES SHOULD AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD WAVER
IN A GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH MANNER IN/NEAR OUR CWA AS THE MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE TRACK IMPACTS THE GREAT LAKES AND VICINITY.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
WET SNOW AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH
MORNING HOURS. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALSO BE MAINLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL AS OUR REGION SHOULD MAINLY RESIDE IN THE COLD
SECTOR. HOWEVER, OUR ENTIRE REGION SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ABOVE-NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50'S TO 60'S.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER THIS UPCOMING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, WHEN ANOTHER RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST. NET CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWS IN THE LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40'S
TO NEAR 50F.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
NUDGE OVER THE AREA, CONDITIONS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE TO VFR
FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 00Z TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DIMINISHED
CONDITIONS ARE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, HOWEVER SCATTERED
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO
MVFR. GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF POPS, OPTED TO HANDLE
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH VCSH FOR WESTERN TERMINALS AND
PROB30 FOR EASTERN.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND WINDS BECOME PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-12 KNOTS. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT THE BIGGER WIND CONCERN WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LLJ THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LLWS FROM 03-12Z OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. THE
LLWS WILL DIMINISH COME SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOW CEILINGS ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS LINGER FROM THE EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, SHIFTING
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LATE
SUNDAY MORNING, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SHIFT IN WINDS AS THEY BECOME NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. ANOTHER MID- TO LATE-WEEK SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
INCREASE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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