971
FXUS61 KCLE 220538
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OVERALL, THE KEY MESSAGES REMAIN UNCHANGED. THERE'S STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS STILL LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND 50S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S AND LOWER
70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND ANY SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ZONES MAY CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THERE'S STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OR BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/MUCAPE/LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONGER STORMS, HOWEVER SEVERAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
CAMS PLACE A CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA,
WHICH WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
THERE'S ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
EARLIER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH COULD STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND FURTHER LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
IF THE CAP MANAGES TO BREAK, SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS,
AND/OR CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED, ALL SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE, ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT, THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE U.S.
ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT TO THE NORTH. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT STORMS DEVELOP CLOSE
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BORDER AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW) CAN'T
BE RULED OUT ACROSS NW PA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE,
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS A SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THE WEEK. MONDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S EXPECTED AND THURSDAY'S CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW TO MID 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
20S LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LLWS OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OCCURS AND CAN GET GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD SPARKING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY IN TWO DIFFERENT
WAVES, GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST
IS PARTICULARLY TRICKY, AND HAVE OPTED FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH A
MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AND COVERING IT MOSTLY WITH SHRA.
THIS MAY BE ALTERED FOR THE 12Z SET THAT GOES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD, THE
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS LINGER FROM THE EAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
TONIGHT, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE, SHIFTING
WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LATE
SUNDAY MORNING, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SHIFT IN WINDS AS THEY BECOME NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS PERIOD FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. ANOTHER MID- TO LATE-WEEK SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
INCREASE WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...04
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