921
FXUS61 KCLE 220755
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
355 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR REGION LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ROUGHLY THE LATITUDE OF
CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) UNUSUALLY-WARM TEMPERATURES PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TODAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
2.) VARIABLE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AFFECT OUR REGION TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WOBBLES
ESE'WARD FROM LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ON TO NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. THIS LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW THE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA
DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING, LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE 60'S TO 70'S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SAME PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DCAPE TO
MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30, WHERE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND GREATER DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DOWNSHEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE
ORGANIZED (I.E. ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS). THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RELEASE WEAK TO
BORDERLINE MODERATE AND ELEVATED CAPE AMIDST CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, ORGANIZED, AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL TO DAMAGING HAIL REMAINS A
CONCERN WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT, AND ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE
FRONT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
PLUME, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. SOME FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS, WHEN COMPARED TO THE SARS
(SOUNDING ANALOG RETRIEVAL SYSTEM) SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL UP TO 2" IN
DIAMETER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN ROUGHLY THE KNOX COUNTY TO MAHONING COUNTY
CORRIDOR IN OUR CWA. NOTE: BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
MUCAPE, INCLUDING WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE, THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL EXISTS ALONG AND ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF
CLEVELAND. HOWEVER, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED VIA MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS RAIN SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 1 AM MONDAY
BASED ON EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE. IT NOW
APPEARS RAIN WILL END BEFORE HAVING THE CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW VIA SUFFICIENT CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER IN OUR CWA THIS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN BEGINS TO EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD ON TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD, A WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. DESPITE MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT, ANY RESULTING
PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF VIRGA DUE TO A DRY LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE COLD SECTOR. CONTINUED CAA AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 30'S TO 40F IN NW PA AND THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S IN
NORTHERN OH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAA AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION, AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 40'S TO MID 50'S TUESDAY AND
MAINLY THE 50'S ON WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REACH THE 30'S TUESDAY NIGHT.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. PERIODS OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES AND ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT; LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ABOVE-
NORMAL LOWS AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NEAR
TO BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AND BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, RESPECTIVELY, AMIDST LOW-LEVEL CAA.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY CREST E'WARD OVER OUR REGION. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE, ANOTHER WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST TRENDS IN NBM FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE DRY FOR THE SAME
REASONS AS TUESDAY'S WARM FRONT PASSAGE. AN OVERALL WARMING
TREND IN AIR TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WAA, AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LLWS OVERNIGHT BEFORE MIXING OCCURS AND CAN GET GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD SPARKING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, LIKELY IN TWO DIFFERENT
WAVES, GENERALLY AFTER 17Z. THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST
IS PARTICULARLY TRICKY, AND HAVE OPTED FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH A
MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST AND COVERING IT MOSTLY WITH SHRA.
THIS MAY BE ALTERED FOR THE 12Z SET THAT GOES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD, THE
CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY
WILL BRINGS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT 15-25KTS. DUE TO THE DUE NORTH ORIENTATION OF THIS
WIND, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BASIN OF
THE LAKE. LOOKING AT WAVE HEIGHTS 3-4FT FOR THESE AREAS,
GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIME FRAME.
INTO MONDAY, WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY, BUT DECREASE TO 10-20KTS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2-4FT. WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND WAVE HEIGHTS
LESS THAN A FOOT, BECOMING EASTERLY WEDNESDAY AROUND 10-15KTS
AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE WESTERN BASIN INCREASING TO 1-3FT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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