293
FXUS61 KCLE 221723
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
123 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING HAIL ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR REGION LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ROUGHLY THE LATITUDE OF
CLEVELAND AND POINTS SOUTH. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) UNUSUALLY-WARM TEMPERATURES PRECEDE A STRONG COLD FRONT
PASSAGE TODAY. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.
2.) VARIABLE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, MARCH 29TH. PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AFFECT OUR REGION TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW WOBBLES
ESE'WARD FROM LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ON TO NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY SUNSET THIS EVENING. THIS LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW THE
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT TO SWEEP SE'WARD THROUGH OUR CWA
DURING THE MID-MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PEEKS OF
SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME HEATING, LOW-LEVEL WAA, AND APPRECIABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH MAINLY THE 60'S TO 70'S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SAME PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAPE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE DCAPE TO
MATERIALIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR, ESPECIALLY ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF U.S. ROUTE 30, WHERE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND GREATER DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY DOWNSHEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
MODERATE TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE
ORGANIZED (I.E. ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS). THE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS. FOR SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RELEASE WEAK TO
BORDERLINE MODERATE AND ELEVATED CAPE AMIDST CONTINUED MODERATE
TO STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, ORGANIZED, AND ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL TO DAMAGING HAIL REMAINS A
CONCERN WITH SURFACE-BASED STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT, AND ELEVATED STORMS ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE
FRONT DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML
PLUME, WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE MUCAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE. SOME FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS, WHEN COMPARED TO THE SARS
(SOUNDING ANALOG RETRIEVAL SYSTEM), SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL UP TO 2" IN
DIAMETER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN ROUGHLY THE KNOX COUNTY TO MAHONING COUNTY
CORRIDOR IN OUR CWA. NOTE: BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
MUCAPE, INCLUDING WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE, THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL EXISTS ALONG AND ROUGHLY SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF
CLEVELAND. HOWEVER, ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONGER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED VIA MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS RAIN SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 9 PM THIS EVENING AND 1 AM MONDAY
BASED ON EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
STABILIZING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE RIDGE. IT NOW
APPEARS RAIN WILL END BEFORE HAVING THE CHANCE TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW VIA SUFFICIENT CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20'S TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY.
CURRENT ODDS FAVOR DRY WEATHER IN OUR CWA THIS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN BEGINS TO EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD ON TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE EXITS E'WARD, A WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. DESPITE MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT, ANY RESULTING
PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF VIRGA DUE TO A DRY LOW-LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN THE COLD SECTOR. CONTINUED CAA AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 30'S TO 40F IN NW PA AND THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S IN
NORTHERN OH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WAA AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION, AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM FRONT, ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 40'S TO MID 50'S TUESDAY AND
MAINLY THE 50'S ON WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN, OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
REACH THE 30'S TUESDAY NIGHT.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, CYCLONIC W'ERLY TO
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD IMPACT
OUR REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE'WARD ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE THURSDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. PERIODS OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FOLLOWING: MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXES AND ALONG THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT; LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ABOVE-
NORMAL LOWS AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, RESPECTIVELY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, NEAR
TO BELOW-NORMAL LOWS AND BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, RESPECTIVELY, AMIDST LOW-LEVEL CAA.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BUILD FROM THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY CREST E'WARD OVER OUR REGION. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE, ANOTHER WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP N'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST TRENDS IN NBM FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THIS FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE DRY FOR THE SAME REASONS AS
TUESDAY'S WARM FRONT PASSAGE. AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IN AIR
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL WAA, AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 10-14 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO GUST UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE SHOULD
BE AN INITIAL PUSH OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
MORE DEFINED LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. OPTED TO HANDLE
T'STORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH TEMPOS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAIN TIMING AT EACH TERMINALS. LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN/HAZARD IS
LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR MIDNIGHT, BECOMING DRY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
AND GAIN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THIS SYSTEM,
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. MONDAY MORNING, THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO HIGHER THAN 1KFT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE ARE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO BECOME NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE STRONG WINDS REMAIN ISOLATED TO THE
WESTERN BASIN RIGHT NOW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH,
WINDS WILL GAIN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THIS
GUSTIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD.
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JASZKA
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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