946
FXUS61 KCLE 221910
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS DECREASING DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW, IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURRING TONIGHT AND MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, DRY AIR, AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE STORMS
WILL INITIATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
MAY ONCE AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THERE'S ALSO A
CHANCE THAT STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA AND STRENGTHEN AFTER EXITING THE CWA. THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA, PRIMARILY
FROM U.S. ROUTE 30 SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SHEAR
VALUES CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE, HOWEVER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
30-40+ KNOTS SUPPORT STORM MODE OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OR
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT, INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AND
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH SO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, ALTHOUGH SURROUNDING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR COULD PRODUCE A RISK OF
DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
MESOANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. EITHER WAY,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MARION TO WARREN, OH WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) NORTH FROM ROUGHLY FINDLAY, OH TO
MEADVILLE, PA (INCLUDING CLEVELAND). THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND A DUSTING ON GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES ARE NOT EXPECTED. FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND THE
RESULTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
ANTICIPATED MONDAY/FRIDAY AND THE WARMEST HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 10-14 KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO GUST UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THERE SHOULD
BE AN INITIAL PUSH OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A
MORE DEFINED LINE PUSHES SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. OPTED TO HANDLE
T'STORM AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH TEMPOS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAIN TIMING AT EACH TERMINALS. LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS MAY
BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THE PRIMARY CONCERN/HAZARD IS
LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR MIDNIGHT, BECOMING DRY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
AND GAIN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE. WITH THIS SYSTEM,
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE WAY TO
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. MONDAY MORNING, THINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO HIGHER THAN 1KFT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IN STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE ARE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO BECOME NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE STRONG WINDS REMAIN ISOLATED TO THE
WESTERN BASIN RIGHT NOW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH,
WINDS WILL GAIN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THIS
GUSTIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD.
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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