534
FXUS61 KCLE 230608
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
208 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS DECREASING DUE TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF INSTABILITY. AS OF NOW, IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING.
2.) VARIABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCURRING TONIGHT AND MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, DRY AIR, AND
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE STORMS
WILL INITIATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT AROUND 8 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, HOWEVER MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
MAY ONCE AGAIN INHIBIT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THERE'S ALSO A
CHANCE THAT STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA AND STRENGTHEN AFTER EXITING THE CWA. THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA, PRIMARILY
FROM U.S. ROUTE 30 SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SHEAR
VALUES CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE, HOWEVER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF
30-40+ KNOTS SUPPORT STORM MODE OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OR
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS POINT, INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AND
LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH SO LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, ALTHOUGH SURROUNDING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR COULD PRODUCE A RISK OF
DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
MESOANALYSIS/SATELLITE DATA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. EITHER WAY,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY MARION TO WARREN, OH WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) NORTH FROM ROUGHLY FINDLAY, OH TO
MEADVILLE, PA (INCLUDING CLEVELAND). THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE ENHANCED RISK AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL RESULT IN LOW-END CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND A DUSTING ON GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES ARE NOT EXPECTED. FROM THERE, DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PERIODIC SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH COLD
FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND THE
RESULTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
ANTICIPATED MONDAY/FRIDAY AND THE WARMEST HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/TUES AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS WILL TREND NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUST UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
~23Z/MON. RESULTING CEILINGS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MVFR TO IFR
RANGE BEFORE 13Z/MON AND MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE
THEREAFTER AS ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULI EVOLVE INTO NUMEROUS CUMULI.
THESE CUMULI ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 23Z/MON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER, FROM
23Z/MON THROUGH 06Z/TUES, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE-EFFECT
STRATOCUMULI WITH BASES NEAR 2KFT TO 3KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO
STREAM GENERALLY SE'WARD OR S'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF KCLE.
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND VFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AND
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ~12Z/MON. VISIBILITY SHOULD
RANGE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR IN THIS PRECIP AND ANY LINGERING MIST.
HOWEVER, THE LINGERING MIST IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z/MON
AS DRIER AIR AT/NEAR THE SURFACE OVERSPREADS OUR REGION
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE ARE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO BECOME NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE STRONG WINDS REMAIN ISOLATED TO THE
WESTERN BASIN RIGHT NOW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH,
WINDS WILL GAIN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THIS
GUSTIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD.
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>146.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...04
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