146
FXUS61 KCLE 230640
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
240 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE
FIRST FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COLD TODAY WITH ISOLATED NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, THEN GRADUALLY WARMING.
2.) THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF AGAIN IN THIS HIGHLY VARIABLE PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN INVERSION AROUND 800MB AND AROUND 100MB OF SATURATION BENEATH IT
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH AN
ASSIST FROM A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH AND WHILE
MODEST DAYTIME HEATING TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL
HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH SOME NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR, AND ULTIMATELY DO
NOT THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE WARRANTED WITH THIS, ESPECIALLY WITH
TEMPERATURES LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THIS COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS, AND AFTER
TODAY, WILL BE ON THE TRACK TO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. 30S TODAY MODIFY TO 40S TUESDAY, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKES HOLD WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE FOLD FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES GET BACK INTO THE
50S/60S WEDNESDAY AND 60S/70S THURSDAY. FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY AFTER
THE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN A SIMILAR TREND AS SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WILL BE PAYING
FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE SEEING THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE LENGTH OF TIME IT TAKES TO GET EAST OF THE
CWA FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN. UNTIL THEN, SLOW AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BRINGS 40S SATURDAY AND 50S SUNDAY, AND AGAIN, DRY
UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/TUES AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS WILL TREND NW'ERLY TO NE'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUST UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
~23Z/MON. RESULTING CEILINGS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MVFR TO IFR
RANGE BEFORE 13Z/MON AND MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE
THEREAFTER AS ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULI EVOLVE INTO NUMEROUS CUMULI.
THESE CUMULI ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 23Z/MON AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER, FROM
23Z/MON THROUGH 06Z/TUES, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE-EFFECT
STRATOCUMULI WITH BASES NEAR 2KFT TO 3KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO
STREAM GENERALLY SE'WARD OR S'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF KCLE.
PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AND VFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ALOFT MAY GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AND
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH ~12Z/MON. VISIBILITY SHOULD
RANGE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR IN THIS PRECIP AND ANY LINGERING MIST.
HOWEVER, THE LINGERING MIST IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 12Z/MON
AS DRIER AIR AT/NEAR THE SURFACE OVERSPREADS OUR REGION
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE ARE THIS
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE TO BECOME NORTHERLY
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE STRONG WINDS REMAIN ISOLATED TO THE
WESTERN BASIN RIGHT NOW. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH,
WINDS WILL GAIN MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH WINDS UP
TO 20 KNOTS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. THIS
GUSTIER ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD.
AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 10-15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO BE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>146.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...04
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