944
FXUS61 KCLE 231106
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE
FIRST FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) COLD TODAY WITH ISOLATED NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, THEN GRADUALLY WARMING.
2.) THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF AGAIN IN THIS HIGHLY VARIABLE PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN INVERSION AROUND 800MB AND AROUND 100MB OF SATURATION BENEATH IT
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH AN
ASSIST FROM A MID LEVEL 700MB TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH AND WHILE
MODEST DAYTIME HEATING TAKES ADVANTAGE OF LIMITED INSTABILITY. WILL
HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH SOME NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR, AND ULTIMATELY DO
NOT THINK ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE WARRANTED WITH THIS, ESPECIALLY WITH
TEMPERATURES LINGERING ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THIS COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS, AND AFTER
TODAY, WILL BE ON THE TRACK TO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. 30S TODAY MODIFY TO 40S TUESDAY, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW TAKES HOLD WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE FOLD FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES GET BACK INTO THE
50S/60S WEDNESDAY AND 60S/70S THURSDAY. FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY AFTER
THE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
IN A SIMILAR TREND AS SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WILL BE PAYING
FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. LIKELY TO BE SEEING THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN
PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WILL BE AT THE MERCY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE LENGTH OF TIME IT TAKES TO GET EAST OF THE
CWA FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN. UNTIL THEN, SLOW AIRMASS
MODIFICATION BRINGS 40S SATURDAY AND 50S SUNDAY, AND AGAIN, DRY
UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/TUES AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE
WINDS TREND NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ~23Z/MON. THEREAFTER, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 12Z/TUES.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~23Z/MON. RESULTING
CEILINGS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE BEFORE 15Z/MON
AND MAINLY IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE THEREAFTER AS ABUNDANT
STRATOCUMULI EVOLVE INTO NUMEROUS CUMULI AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES VIA DIURNAL WARMING. THE CUMULI ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z/MON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE VIA NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER, FROM
21Z/MON THROUGH 12Z/TUES, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAKE-EFFECT
STRATOCUMULI WITH BASES NEAR 2KFT TO 4KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO
STREAM GENERALLY SE'WARD OR S'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND IMPACT
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF KCLE.
AREAS OF LINGERING MIST AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY ~15Z/MON. PERIODS OF LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH MAINLY VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED
OVER AND GENERALLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THIS
EARLY EVENING AMIDST A MARGINALLY-COLD/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW ALOFT. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND VFR ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z/TUES.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE U.S. WATERS IN EFFECT:
- UNTIL 5 PM EDT TODAY FOR THE ISLANDS TO WILLOWICK
- FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM TODAY FOR WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE
- FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM TODAY FOR GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY
A TROUGH EXITS SLOWLY E'WARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY TODAY. IN RESPONSE,
NE'ERLY TO NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES E'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL CAUSE NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS TO VEER
TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AS WIND SPEEDS EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. WAVES SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET OR LESS BASIN-WIDE. PRIMARILY
S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
E'WARD. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, A WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY
AND EASE GRADUALLY TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES
INITIALLY AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS
BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-149.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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