533
FXUS61 KCLE 231857
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
257 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MID-
WEEK UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT 500+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 50-60
KNOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.00-1.25 INCHES ON
THURSDAY, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH WHEN
COMPARED TO SOUNDINGS FROM DTX, ILN, AND PIT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING CONCERNS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HIGHS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT 18Z, CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR IN NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA
TO VFR WITH BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN NW OHIO. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING AT TIMES AT EASTERN TERMINALS. SNOW
HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE STEADY AT ERI BUT EXPECT TO SEE AN
UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO BETWEEN 20-23Z AS
SNOW SHOWERS SEEN UPSTREAM IN MICHIGAN CROSS LAKE ERIE AND REACH
THE LOCAL AREA. VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS COULD DROP AS LOW
AS 1 MILE AT TIMES AT CLE/ERI/YNG BUT ARE GENERALLY NOT
EXPECTED TO LAST MORE THAN 30 MIN-1 HOUR AT ANY TERMINAL. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO ATTEMPT TO SCATTER OUT BEHIND THIS BURST IN THE
02-03Z TIME FRAME. ERI WILL BE MORE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND COULD SEE CEILINGS HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 22 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE U.S. WATERS IN EFFECT:
- UNTIL 5 PM EDT TODAY FOR THE ISLANDS TO WILLOWICK
- FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM TODAY FOR WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE
- FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM TODAY FOR GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY
A TROUGH EXITS SLOWLY E'WARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND VICINITY TODAY. IN RESPONSE,
NE'ERLY TO NW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. WAVES AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BASIN AND WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES E'WARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL CAUSE NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY WINDS TO VEER
TO S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AS WIND SPEEDS EASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. WAVES SUBSIDE TO 2 FEET OR LESS BASIN-WIDE. PRIMARILY
S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
E'WARD. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE, A WARM FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES OF 3 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY
AND EASE GRADUALLY TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES
INITIALLY AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS
BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ144>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...JASZKA
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