666
FXUS61 KCLE 232341
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MID-
WEEK UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT 500+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 50-60
KNOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.00-1.25 INCHES ON
THURSDAY, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH WHEN
COMPARED TO SOUNDINGS FROM DTX, ILN, AND PIT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING CONCERNS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HIGHS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A TROUGH IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING,
FOCUSING A BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OH...INCLUDING CLE, CAK, YNG AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT MFD. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF CLE
SOON, AND DEPART THE REST BY 2-3Z. UNTIL SNOW SHOWERS EXIT
BRIEF VSBY DROPS TO 1-3SM WILL CONTINUE, WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS TOO. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS IT IS VFR, THOUGH MOST
HAVE A CEILING AROUND 5,000 FEET. EXPECT ALL TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AS THE SNOW EXITS, AND EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
VFR WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 6-12KT (WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT, ESPECIALLY AT CLE AND ERI) THIS EVENING WILL GO MAINLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT
5-10KT ON TUESDAY. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY FLIP WINDS ONSHORE
OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT CLE AND ERI BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WILLOWICK, OH TO RIPLEY, NY UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF ERIE, PA. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY SEVERAL KNOTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...15
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