585
FXUS61 KCLE 240533
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
133 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BOTH POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES.
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS DEVELOP UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MID-
WEEK UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BY
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT 500+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR 50-60
KNOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWAT VALUES RISE TO 1.00-1.25 INCHES ON
THURSDAY, WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH WHEN
COMPARED TO SOUNDINGS FROM DTX, ILN, AND PIT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME FOR BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING CONCERNS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HIGHS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR FREEZING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
THROUGH 06Z/WED AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS
SLOWLY E'WARD. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND PENETRATE UP TO SEVERAL
MILES INLAND IN NORTH-CENTRAL OH TO NW PA. THIS LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KCLE AND KERI. DRY WEATHER AND PRIMARILY VFR
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI SHOULD LINGER
OVER AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE THROUGH ~13Z/TUES.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW PA,
INCLUDING KERI.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WILLOWICK, OH TO RIPLEY, NY UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF ERIE, PA. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY SEVERAL KNOTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...15
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