235
FXUS61 KCLE 240723
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION, THEN SHIFTS EAST WARD MID
WEEK IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
2) THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER IS THE MAIN THEME TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AND 500MB PVA,
BUT NOTHING MORE THAN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS.
WILL GET INTO THE BEGINNINGS OF SLOW AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH, AND SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
STILL LIKELY TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER IN MID TO UPPER 40S.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR WEDNESDAY, FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
SEE SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY TO THE 850MB TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO
WATCH WEAK 500MB PVA AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY, BUT FOR NOW, KEEPING THE
BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S, AND NEAR 70F FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOWER LEVEL WINDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT, AND EXPECTING LINES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO
WATCH FOR OUR AREA. GOING TO BE A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST
CAPE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
50S. OUTLOOKED FOR A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC AT THIS TIME FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TURNS INTO A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH CHILLY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WARMING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
THROUGH 06Z/WED AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS
SLOWLY E'WARD. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A W'ERLY TO NW'ERLY
LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND PENETRATE UP TO SEVERAL
MILES INLAND IN NORTH-CENTRAL OH TO NW PA. THIS LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KCLE AND KERI. DRY WEATHER AND PRIMARILY VFR
ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LAKE-EFFECT STRATOCUMULI SHOULD LINGER
OVER AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF EASTERN LAKE ERIE THROUGH ~13Z/TUES.
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD YIELD PERIODIC MVFR CEILINGS OVER NW PA,
INCLUDING KERI.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY LATER TONIGHT. A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WILLOWICK, OH TO RIPLEY, NY UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF ERIE, PA. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY SEVERAL KNOTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...15
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