538
FXUS61 KCLE 241035
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION, THEN SHIFTS EAST WARD MID
WEEK IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
2) THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER IS THE MAIN THEME TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION AND 500MB PVA,
BUT NOTHING MORE THAN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS.
WILL GET INTO THE BEGINNINGS OF SLOW AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS THE
AIRMASS CONTINUES A SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH, AND SHOULD SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
STILL LIKELY TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER IN MID TO UPPER 40S.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR WEDNESDAY, FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND
SEE SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY TO THE 850MB TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO
WATCH WEAK 500MB PVA AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY, BUT FOR NOW, KEEPING THE
BULK OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THAT FEATURE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S, AND NEAR 70F FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOWER LEVEL WINDS ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT, AND EXPECTING LINES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO
WATCH FOR OUR AREA. GOING TO BE A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST
CAPE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE
50S. OUTLOOKED FOR A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC AT THIS TIME FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THEN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
TURNS INTO A SIMILAR SITUATION WITH CHILLY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WARMING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WIDESPREAD VFR IMPACT NORTHERN OH AND
NW PA THROUGH 12Z/WED AS THE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
EXITS SLOWLY E'WARD. OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, A PRIMARILY W'ERLY TO
NW'ERLY LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND PENETRATE UP TO SEVERAL
MILES INLAND IN NORTH-CENTRAL OH TO NW PA. THIS LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KCLE AND KERI. DRY WEATHER AND VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z/WED.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW
THIS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
WINDS TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS THEN BECOME S'ERLY
TO SW'ERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY AS
A WARM FRONT SWEEPS N'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE. PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO
SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
E'WARD. WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD
BE NEEDED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE GRADUALLY TO
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES INITIALLY AS LARGE AS
3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.
ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SE'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND ALLOW
ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE. THEN,
A SUBTLE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO
BACK FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AND THEN VEER TO W'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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