889
FXUS61 KCLE 242304
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
704 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LATE THIS
WEEK AS AN ELONGATED, BUT STRONG COLD FRONT PROPAGATES NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH OH STARTING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF
MOIST SWERLY FLOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL
HELP RAISE SURFACE DEW POINTS UP TO 60 DEGF FOR PORTIONS OF OH.
AFTER LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK
FOR THURSDAY SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 50 KT AS A STRONG JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS WESTERN OH
HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA MORE LIKELY TO SEE STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ON
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY PREFRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. WITH THIS COLD FRONT, 850MB
TEMPS WILL DROP FROM 12-14 DEGC THURSDAY TO NEAR -10 DEGC LATE
FRIDAY RESULTING IN MAXTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT LEAST 10 DEGF
BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE PASSING THROUGH AT TIMES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 7-13KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...BRIEF/SPOTTY NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH NON-VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONT. RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME NON-VFR IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS
SLOWLY E'WARD. WAVES WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD
BE NEEDED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE GRADUALLY TO
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES INITIALLY AS LARGE AS
3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.
ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SE'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND ALLOW
ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE. THEN,
A SUBTLE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO
BACK FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AND THEN VEER TO W'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MB
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...JASZKA
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