337
FXUS61 KCLE 250530
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
130 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE LATE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LATE THIS
WEEK AS AN ELONGATED, BUT STRONG COLD FRONT PROPAGATES NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH OH STARTING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD AREA OF
MOIST SW'ERLY FLOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
WILL HELP RAISE SURFACE DEW POINTS UP TO 60F FOR PORTIONS OF
OH. AFTER LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SHEAR PROFILES AROUND 50 KT
AS A STRONG JET MOVES OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE GREATEST
ACROSS WESTERN OH HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA MORE LIKELY TO SEE
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL
LIKELY LIMIT ANY PREFRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE
STORMS. WITH THIS COLD FRONT, 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM 12-14C
THURSDAY TO NEAR -10C LATE FRIDAY RESULTING IN MAXTS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AT LEAST 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WNW'ERLY TO NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/THURS. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBANCES.
WIDESPREAD VFR AND DRY WEATHER PERSIST IN NORTHERN OH AND NW PA
AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT SLOWLY E'WARD. OUR
REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
~14Z/WED. THEREAFTER, S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/THURS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NOCTURNAL AND SW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS
AT/NEAR 925 MB IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
REGION-WIDE AFTER ~03Z/THURS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
MARINE
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS
SLOWLY E'WARD. WAVES WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD
BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD
BE NEEDED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD
BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE GRADUALLY TO
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES INITIALLY AS LARGE AS
3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.
ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD EXIT SE'WARD FROM LAKE ERIE AND ALLOW
ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO SWEEP GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS THE LAKE. THEN,
A SUBTLE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO
BACK FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY AND THEN VEER TO W'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD
REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MB
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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