552
FXUS61 KCLE 251827
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
227 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE,
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS, WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAYBE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE MAIN SHOW COMES
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING REMAINS VARIABLE ACROSS HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z/WED FORECAST CYCLE TRENDING A FEW HOURS LATER.
BUT ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM 6 PM THROUGH 2 AM.
MIDNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE OH/PA BORDER. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ROUGHLY
50-60 KNOTS, AND MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF ~750-100 J/KG.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED
1.25" WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH.
CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S. ANTICIPATE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AS WE ENTER APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING SO
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KTOL/KERI. KTOL
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING DRY AND KERI WILL LIKELY SEE
PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CEILINGS BECOME AFTER ABOUT 12Z
THURSDAY, BUT OPTED FOR LOW-END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITES POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST CEILINGS AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING
SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LLJ WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF LLWS STARTING AT ABOUT 04Z TONIGHT AND ENDING AS
MIXING BECOMES A BIT MORE EFFICIENT AFTER 12-13Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL NON-
VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
E'WARD. WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP SE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THURSDAY EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND FRESHEN
TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WAVES SHOULD BUILD TO AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6
FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD BE NEEDED. BEHIND THE FRONT,
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
NW'ERLY TO N'ERLY AND EASE GRADUALLY TO AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. WAVES INITIALLY AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD
SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE
ERIE AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD VA AND VICINITY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO DRIFT
GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD BACK GRADUALLY FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY TO
S'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...JASZKA
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