926
FXUS61 KCLE 251948
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE,
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS, WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAYBE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE MAIN SHOW COMES
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING REMAINS VARIABLE ACROSS HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z/WED FORECAST CYCLE TRENDING A FEW HOURS LATER.
BUT ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM 6 PM THROUGH 2 AM.
MIDNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE OH/PA BORDER. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ROUGHLY
50-60 KNOTS, AND MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF ~750-100 J/KG.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED
1.25" WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH.
CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S. ANTICIPATE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AS WE ENTER APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING SO
HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KTOL/KERI. KTOL
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING DRY AND KERI WILL LIKELY SEE
PREVAILING SHOWERS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE'S SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW CEILINGS BECOME AFTER ABOUT 12Z
THURSDAY, BUT OPTED FOR LOW-END VFR CEILINGS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITES POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST CEILINGS AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING
SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A LLJ WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF LLWS STARTING AT ABOUT 04Z TONIGHT AND ENDING AS
MIXING BECOMES A BIT MORE EFFICIENT AFTER 12-13Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL NON-
VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
WAVES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
KNOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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