080
FXUS61 KCLE 260007
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
807 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE,
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS, WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAYBE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE MAIN SHOW COMES
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING REMAINS VARIABLE ACROSS HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z/WED FORECAST CYCLE TRENDING A FEW HOURS LATER.
BUT ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM 6 PM THROUGH 2 AM.
MIDNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE OH/PA BORDER. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ROUGHLY
50-60 KNOTS, AND MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF ~750-1000
J/KG.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED
1.25" WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH.
CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S. ANTICIPATE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AS WE ENTER APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY VFR TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT CAK/YNG. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI
GIVEN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO THINK COVERAGE WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
TAF SITES GENERALLY AROUND OR AFTER 0Z, SO HAVE INCLUDED PROB30S
AT CLE/ERI AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON IF STORMS
MAY FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. IN TERMS
OF IMPACTS, LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE MOST CONCERNING AT THIS TIME
WITH A MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR
TORNADOES.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING,
AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT 2KFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, AROUND 40 KNOTS, INTRODUCING A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR LLWS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH
PERIODIC GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KNOTS. ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
NORTH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
WAVES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
KNOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...15
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