232
FXUS61 KCLE 260608
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
208 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE,
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS, WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER COMES TO AN END ON THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAYBE SOME WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THE MAIN SHOW COMES
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. TIMING REMAINS VARIABLE ACROSS HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z/WED FORECAST CYCLE TRENDING A FEW HOURS LATER.
BUT ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO ROUGHLY OCCUR FROM 6 PM THROUGH 2 AM.
MIDNIGHT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE OH/PA BORDER. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) REMAINS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ROUGHLY
50-60 KNOTS, AND MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OF ~750-1000
J/KG.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) IN THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER'S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL REACH OR EXCEED
1.25" WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE MARCH.
CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
RANGE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND IT. MUCH COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 40S. ANTICIPATE FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S AS WE ENTER APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/FRI. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT GENERALLY E'WARD AND S'WARD BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SSE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN
~21Z/THURS AND ~02Z/FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND VICINITY THROUGH 06Z/FRI. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER ~13Z/THURS. NOTE: A NOCTURNAL
AND WSW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT/NEAR 925 MB IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REGION-WIDE THROUGH
~12Z/THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING SOON THEREAFTER. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO NW'ERLY AND THEN TOWARD NE'ERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THESE POST-FRONT WINDS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
PRIMARILY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~18Z/THURS, BUT VFR ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION, A
LINE OF HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH BRIEF/ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND DAMAGING HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BRIEF MVFR TO LIFR. BEHIND THE LINE, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND
LINGER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/FRI.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW AND NON-VFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MONDAY.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
WAVES WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEARSHORE ZONES OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 10
KNOTS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...15
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