524
FXUS61 KCLE 260802
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER TO BEST REFLECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE (I.E. - DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES). STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING BUT WILL ALSO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) COOL, BUT DRY, WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
RESURGENCE IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOLLOWING IN ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ENTERING
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR TWO WINDOWS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE FIRST WINDOW IS FROM
1 TO 4 PM FOR FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA WITH A CONDITIONAL, ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDOW WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE SECOND WINDOW IS FROM 5 PM TO
MIDNIGHT, WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE,
MOVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST, AS THE WARM FRONT
RETURNS SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO BEST REFLECT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATER TODAY.
THE WARM FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS FRONT HAS GENERATED A FAIR AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
THAT MAY BRING SOME MORNING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
WILL LARGELY STALL OUT OVER LAKES MICHIGAN AND ERIE AND TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S,
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD CONSIDERABLY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE OVER NORTHERN OHIO. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG 50 KT 850
MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ENTER THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR WIND SHEAR
TO INCREASE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE
AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2, SUGGESTING SOME MORE
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, MANY OF THE INGREDIENTS
WILL BE COMING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE FIRST WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON FROM 1 TO 4 PM IN NE OHIO AND NW
PA, THE CONVECTION WILL BE SPECIFICALLY TIED TO THE WARM FRONT. AS
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MORE
THAN A SCATTERED RAIN CHANCE. HOWEVER, BY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIS CONVECTION TRY TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED
AND INTENSIFY INTO AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE
DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT DO END UP
DEVELOPING. THERE WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WITH THE
WARM FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET, AND THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE THAT SURFACE-BASED STORMS WOULD BE SUPERCELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN A TORNADO.
WHILE CONCERNING, THE THREAT IS BOTH CONDITIONAL AND A VERY
SHORT WINDOW, AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES TOWARD LAKE ERIE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THESE STRONGER, SURFACE-BASED STORMS. IN ADDITION,
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND JUST A TOUCH FASTER WITH
EACH MODEL CYCLE AND THAT COULD ALSO INDICATE THAT THE FRONT
COULD REACH LAKE ERIE BEFORE INITIATING NEW CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION. IN THE END, THERE IS PLENTY OF CONDITIONALITY TO THIS
SETUP, BUT IF IT MATERIALIZES, THERE WOULD BE A COUPLE SNEAKY
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW BELOW.
THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE ENHANCED RISK WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
ONWARD, AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHED BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
AND INITIATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO. THESE NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE, AND PRESENT A SEVERE
THREAT TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS WINDOW, THE MAIN STORM
MODE WILL LIKELY BE LINEAR WITH A TOUCH LESS SHEAR SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST,
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS WILL ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR ONCE AGAIN AND QLCS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5", STORMS WILL
PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLOODING, BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIGH FOR LATE
MARCH NEAR 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION, STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY,
GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT, AND FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS
HIGH AS A CONCERN AS OTHER SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS EVENING'S SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
AND 40S ON FRIDAY AND 40S ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST AND ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM FRONT TO ENTER THE REGION, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE 50S. THE WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ON MONDAY WITH MOIST, RETURN FLOW ENTERING INTO THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL START AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH DAILY RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED. THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME
WOULD BE TUESDAY WITH A REINFORCING WARM FRONT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
W'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AFFECT
OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/FRI. AT THE SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXIT GENERALLY E'WARD AND S'WARD BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SSE'WARD THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN
~21Z/THURS AND ~02Z/FRI. BEHIND THE FRONT, A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND VICINITY THROUGH 06Z/FRI. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS TREND S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER ~13Z/THURS. NOTE: A NOCTURNAL
AND WSW'ERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT/NEAR 925 MB IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REGION-WIDE THROUGH
~12Z/THURS BEFORE DISSIPATING SOON THEREAFTER. OUR REGIONAL
SURFACE WINDS VEER QUICKLY TO NW'ERLY AND THEN TOWARD NE'ERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.
THESE POST-FRONT WINDS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUST UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
PRIMARILY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TIME BEING.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ~18Z/THURS, BUT VFR ARE LIKELY WITH
THESE SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION, A
LINE OF HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING AND ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH BRIEF/ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 TO 60 KNOTS AND DAMAGING HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY BRIEF MVFR TO LIFR. BEHIND THE LINE, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN, LOW CEILINGS, AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR ARE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE COLD FRONT AND
LINGER OVER OUR REGION THROUGH 06Z/FRI. NOTE: ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER-REACHES OF THE FRONT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT'S PASSAGE.
OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN AND/OR SNOW AND NON-VFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MONDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE NEARSHORE U.S.
WATERS:
- RENO BEACH TO WILLOWICK FROM 11 PM EDT TODAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY
- WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM FRIDAY
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
SE'WARD. WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP SSE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY TO N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY
AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING AS WAVES BUILD TOWARD 2 TO 5 FEET. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VARY BETWEEN NW'ERLY
AND NE'ERLY. INITIAL WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD EASE
GRADUALLY TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVES INITIALLY
AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE
ERIE AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD VA AND VICINITY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO DRIFT
GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD BACK GRADUALLY FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY TO
S'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. ON MONDAY, THE RIDGE
SHOULD EXIT SE'WARD AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SETTLES SE'WARD OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD CAUSE S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO N'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD BE
MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOTERS ARE FORECAST
CURRENTLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR THE
POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LEZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147-
148.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...JASZKA
MARINE...JASZKA
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