792
FXUS61 KCLE 261846
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
246 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN AREAWIDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ALL OF NORTHERN OHIO UNDER AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY, THE
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER UPGRADING SOME OF NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO TO A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE (I.E. - DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES). STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING BUT WILL ALSO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
A CLUSTER OF SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE
CREEPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH WITH THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5)
WILL COME WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SEE A NOSE OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 70-80 KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INITIATE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BETWEEN 19
AND 21Z. AT THE ONSET, THERE MAY BE A MIX OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION. WITH ANY INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN A LINEAR SET UP
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS EVENING AS
FUTURE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED!
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ OVERHEAD AND FAST STORM MOTIONS, THE MEAN LAYER
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY,
PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE WHICH EXCEED 90TH
PERCENTILES FOR LATE MARCH. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THERE MAY BE AN AXIS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.50-1.75" ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-30. THE 12Z HREF 6-HR LPMM ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SWATHS OF 2.00+ INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND USHERS
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED TO END MARCH
AND BEGIN APRIL. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THERE
IS A CLOUD DECK AROUND 030-050 ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO
PERIODICALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE MOVING TO
THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS AND DAMAGING HAIL.
GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWED DOWN WHEN IT
WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WILL BEGIN AROUND
20-22Z FOR THE MOST NORTHERN TERMINALS AT KTOL, KCLE, AND KERI. IT
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 02-03Z. THE LINE WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THAT COULD DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR TO
LIFR. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
INITIATION BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE,
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW KEEPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION STARTING AROUND
08Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AND 12Z FOR SITES TO THE SOUTH. NON-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW WHEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO RISE.
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING
TO 20-30 KNOTS. THEY WILL SLOWLY VEER TO BE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST, BUT ERRATIC GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WINDS SHIFT TO
BE NORTHERLY, THEY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED,
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE NEARSHORE U.S.
WATERS:
- RENO BEACH TO WILLOWICK FROM 11 PM EDT TODAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY
- WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM FRIDAY
PRIMARILY S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS SLOWLY
SE'WARD. WAVES REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP SSE'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AND CAUSE SW'ERLY WINDS TO VEER QUICKLY TO N'ERLY TO NE'ERLY
AND FRESHEN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
EVENING AS WAVES BUILD TOWARD 2 TO 5 FEET. BEHIND THE FRONT, A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND
VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VARY BETWEEN NW'ERLY
AND NE'ERLY. INITIAL WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD EASE
GRADUALLY TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. WAVES INITIALLY
AS LARGE AS 3 TO 6 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT LAKE
ERIE AS THE EMBEDDED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TOWARD VA AND VICINITY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO DRIFT
GENERALLY N'WARD ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, WINDS
AROUND 5 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD BACK GRADUALLY FROM N'ERLY TO SW'ERLY TO
S'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. ON MONDAY, THE RIDGE
SHOULD EXIT SE'WARD AS A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SETTLES SE'WARD OVER
LAKE ERIE. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SHOULD CAUSE S'ERLY TO SW'ERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS TO VEER TO N'ERLY. WAVES SHOULD BE
MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS, BUT OCCASIONAL 4 TO 5 FOOTERS ARE FORECAST
CURRENTLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MONDAY'S FORECAST FOR THE
POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LEZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147-
148.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...JASZKA
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