825
FXUS61 KCLE 262105
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
505 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 11PM
TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MULTI-HAZARD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THERE REMAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, HOWEVER A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. SHORT, INTENSE BURSTS OF
PRECIPITATION MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED RAINFALL RATES OVER 0.5"
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE (I.E. - DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES). STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING BUT WILL ALSO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
A CLUSTER OF SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE
CREEPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH WITH THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5)
WILL COME WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SEE A NOSE OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 70-80 KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INITIATE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BETWEEN 19
AND 21Z. AT THE ONSET, THERE MAY BE A MIX OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION. WITH ANY INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN A LINEAR SET UP
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS EVENING AS
FUTURE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED!
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ OVERHEAD AND FAST STORM MOTIONS, THE MEAN LAYER
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY,
PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE WHICH EXCEED 90TH
PERCENTILES FOR LATE MARCH. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THERE MAY BE AN AXIS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.50-1.75" ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-30. THE 12Z HREF 6-HR LPMM ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SWATHS OF 2.00+ INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND USHERS
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED TO END MARCH
AND BEGIN APRIL. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION CURRENTLY. THERE
IS A CLOUD DECK AROUND 030-050 ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN OHIO
PERIODICALLY DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE MOVING TO
THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACTS THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS AND DAMAGING HAIL.
GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWED DOWN WHEN IT
WILL ENTER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WILL BEGIN AROUND
20-22Z FOR THE MOST NORTHERN TERMINALS AT KTOL, KCLE, AND KERI. IT
WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY 02-03Z. THE LINE WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES THAT COULD DROP CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR TO
LIFR. THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD LAST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
INITIATION BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE,
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING TOMORROW KEEPING CONDITIONS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR. THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION STARTING AROUND
08Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES AND 12Z FOR SITES TO THE SOUTH. NON-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES THROUGH MID-DAY
TOMORROW WHEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO RISE.
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING
TO 20-30 KNOTS. THEY WILL SLOWLY VEER TO BE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS LIKELY WITHIN THE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST, BUT ERRATIC GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE FRONT, AS WINDS SHIFT TO
BE NORTHERLY, THEY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED,
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. NON-VFR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE AND
WAVES WILL BUILD TO BE 3-5 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ACTIVE FOR THE NEARSHORE
ZONES FROM RENO BEACH TO WILLOWICK FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 4 PM
FRIDAY AND FOR WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KNOTS AND
SHIFT TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WAVES AS WELL WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 1-3 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH WAVES
LESS THAN 3 FEET. ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BE 10- 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15-20 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR LEZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ147-
148.
DISCUSSION...04/13
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
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