919
FXUS61 KCLE 270552
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS DIMINISHED. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE (I.E. - DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOES). STORMS WILL BE FAST MOVING BUT WILL ALSO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLOODING.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRY, BUT COLD,
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
A CLUSTER OF SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE
CREEPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH WITH THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5)
WILL COME WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SEE A NOSE OF MLCAPE 200-500 J/KG COUPLED WITH 70-80 KNOTS OF
BULK SHEAR DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INITIATE ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BETWEEN 19
AND 21Z. AT THE ONSET, THERE MAY BE A MIX OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTION. WITH ANY INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS THE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN A LINEAR SET UP
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIKELY DIMINISHING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STAY WEATHER AWARE THIS EVENING AS
FUTURE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED!
DESPITE A STRONG LLJ OVERHEAD AND FAST STORM MOTIONS, THE MEAN LAYER
FLOW WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY,
PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE WHICH EXCEED 90TH
PERCENTILES FOR LATE MARCH. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THERE MAY BE AN AXIS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.50-1.75" ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-30. THE 12Z HREF 6-HR LPMM ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SWATHS OF 2.00+ INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND USHERS
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ANTICIPATED TO END MARCH
AND BEGIN APRIL. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER CHANCES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH SOME MVFR VIS, REMAINS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT 6Z, THOUGH IS ENDING AT ERI AND WILL
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 11Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED. THESE CEILINGS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AS EARLY AS 8Z AT TOL BUT
TAKING UNTIL PERHAPS CLOSE TO MIDDAY TOWARDS MFD AND CAK.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OR JUST SCATTER OUT TO
VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR FILTERS IN. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE BRIEF, SO FOR NOW WILL
MENTION IT HERE BUT NOT IN THE TAFS.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT 12-16KT WITH SOME 20-25KT
GUSTS THROUGH 12-15Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE AND
WAVES WILL BUILD TO BE 3-5 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ACTIVE FOR THE NEARSHORE
ZONES FROM RENO BEACH TO WILLOWICK FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 4 PM
FRIDAY AND FOR WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KNOTS AND
SHIFT TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WAVES AS WELL WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 1-3 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH WAVES
LESS THAN 3 FEET. ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BE 10- 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15-20 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ143>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ147-
148.
DISCUSSION...04/13
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...23
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