880
FXUS61 KCLE 270629
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
229 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
OVER FOR THIS EVENT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
ISOLATED/NUISANCE FLOODING WITH TRAINING CONVECTION DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.
2) COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME MINOR SNOW
CHANCES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
3) THE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS TO UNSETTLED FROM MONDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
ENDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS EVENT. ALL ATTENTION HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE TRAINING CONVECTION MOVING PARALLEL WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND THE BATCH OF
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SUBTLY SOUTH WITH IT. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.50" OF RAIN
THROUGH DAWN. SOME ISOLATED OR NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE TRAINING CONVECTION, BUT SO FAR, THE AREA HAS BEEN ABLE TO
ABSORB THE RAINFALL FAIRLY WELL AND THE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY
WITH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ACHIEVED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE 40S AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE 30S TO LOWER
40S TODAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT OF MOISTURE
REMAINING AND THE LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR
SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
OVERALL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO ENTER THE REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE 50S.
WARMER, MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL ENTER ON TUESDAY, SURGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S AGAIN, BUT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, INTRODUCING ANOTHER WINDOW FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN A TOUCH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AND MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. OVERALL,
IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THERE IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, OR THURSDAY, BUT THE FORECAST IS WORTH
MONITORING AS THE CALENDAR FLIPS TO APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH SOME MVFR VIS, REMAINS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT 6Z, THOUGH IS ENDING AT ERI AND WILL
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH 11Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED. THESE CEILINGS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AS EARLY AS 8Z AT TOL BUT
TAKING UNTIL PERHAPS CLOSE TO MIDDAY TOWARDS MFD AND CAK.
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OR JUST SCATTER OUT TO
VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL
AIR FILTERS IN. A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE BRIEF, SO FOR NOW WILL
MENTION IT HERE BUT NOT IN THE TAFS.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT 12-16KT WITH SOME 20-25KT
GUSTS THROUGH 12-15Z, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ERIE ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE AND
WAVES WILL BUILD TO BE 3-5 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ACTIVE FOR THE NEARSHORE
ZONES FROM RENO BEACH TO WILLOWICK FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 4 PM
FRIDAY AND FOR WILLOWICK TO CONNEAUT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 10-15 KNOTS AND
SHIFT TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WAVES AS WELL WILL DIMINISH TO
AROUND 1-3 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WITH WAVES
LESS THAN 3 FEET. ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BE 10- 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND WAVES BUILDING TO 3-5 FEET FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 15-20 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ143>148.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...23
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