571
FXUS61 KCLE 110550
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EXITS THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO A COLD NIGHT AND COOL
BUT SUNNY SATURDAY.
2) TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THIS RAIN IS BEING ENHANCED BY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A 95-105 KNOT H3 JET STREAK OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN AND SW ONTARIO ROUNDING THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND SETTLES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, SO
EXPECT A QUICK END TO THE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER BY 23Z, AND ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PA WILL BE DONE
BY 03Z.
A CHILLY NIGHT IN ON TAP AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH,
BUT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE WILL KEEP LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS
IN PLACE, SO THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT.
EXPECT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 35-40 F RANGE. LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD, SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE
LAKESHORE GIVEN NE FLOW OFF THE COLD LAKE ERIE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO BEGIN SUNDAY,
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LAST ALL OF
NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A SOLID 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
A LEAD MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE DESERT SW
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING
WHILE WEAKENING AND ATTEMPTING TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING TOWARD
NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT
EARLY DAY TIMING SHOULD TEMPER ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY.
AFTERWARDS, A STRONG MID/UPPER LOW MOVING INLAND FROM
CALIFORNIA MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN
DEEP SW FLOW AND RESULTANT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO QUICKLY RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
OUT TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH IN THE DEEP SW FLOW COMBINED WITH THE BROAD AND UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. PEAK
COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MORE OF AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT, SO THE SWODY5 HAS A RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SINCE THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. IF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OCCURS NEXT WEEK, THURSDAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL AS THE SHEARING OUT TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE EJECTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA.
EVEN SO, CONTINUED SW FLOW FROM RENEWED MID/UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN PLACE FRIDAY. OVERALL, A WARM AND ACTIVE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG
WILL PERSIST AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. FROM THERE, VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY, ALTHOUGH EASTERLY WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY AT KTOL/KFDY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS BY 00Z
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE
TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS IN THE OPEN WATERS MAY
APPROACH 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID-WEEK AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF WINDS/WAVES TREND
HIGHER, ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
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